CHICAGO — The 2026 NBA Draft Combine has come to a close and while the measurements, drills, and games produced plenty of information for decision-makers and draft lovers to digest, the real value in this event continues to be in the intel gathering. When every major agency and NBA front office are clustered in the same gym and hotel for a full week, along with numerous members of the national media and high-major college coaches, it’s an undeniable networking event. Amidst those pleasantries and authentic opportunities to reconnect is a very steady exchange of information.
The most immediate intel of the week was focused on the first four picks in the draft and the domino effects of various scenarios there. The headlines will follow what the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies and Chicago Bulls do at the top of the draft with the four players widely expected to be the top picks – AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson.
But the draft really starts after those four players come off the board. As the week went on in Chicago, more and more information started to spread through Wintrust Arena and the connected Marriott Marquis.
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Will it be four straight point guards?
We may not yet know the order that the top four prospects will be taken in, but there is a large degree of collective confidence that when the Clippers pick at No. 5, Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, and Wilson will all be off the board.
Many mocks, including the CBS Sports Big Board, list a quartet of freshmen point guards next. It’s Darius Acuff, Kingston Flemings, Keaton Wagler, and Mikel Brown, in various and differing orders. What I’m hearing from NBA scouts though, many of whom are engaging in their own mocks in order to forecast plausible scenarios, is real skepticism that four point guards will be taken consecutively, despite the fact that three of those four teams (Brooklyn at 6, Sacramento at 7, and Atlanta at 8) have a void at the point.
A spot for a trade in the top 10?
The Clippers are the one team here that does not have point guard as a positional need after acquiring Darius Garland at the deadline. But the fact that Los Angeles picks at No. 5 means they’re farther away from any other options and thus may have a harder time justifying taking someone else with this pick.
Could this be a place to look for a trade? Many people are wondering that out loud, especially amid so much uncertainty about the Clippers long-term assets as they await the results of the Aspiration investigation. If they are committed to Garland long-term, and the best prospects available don’t fit alongside him, it may be logical for them to explore turning this draft pick asset into multiple assets, whether that be by trading down and adding another pick or moving it for multiple other future picks.
One way or another, most scouts suspect that something will break up these four point guards. Exactly what, or which player, remains to be seen.
Michigan trio rising
If it is a player who cracks the top eight, Arizona’s Brayden Burries is the most likely candidate. Tennessee’s Nate Ament is a possibility, although there is still a wide range of opinions on him. Another option is Michigan’s Aday Mara, who continues to build momentum in this process. Mara’s combination of incredible size, rim protection, deceptive mobility, passing, and touch could fit with any of those four teams, but the Clippers and Kings would have the most obvious need. It remains to be seen if either would pull the trigger at 5 or 7, but it is no longer viewed as impossible, particularly in that latter scenario.
Two more members of Michigan’s 2026 National Championship team also left Chicago trending. Yaxel Lendeborg’s dimensions, physical tools, and even basketball skills were already well known coming into this week. Some of the biggest questions centered around his maturity. He reportedly eased some of those concerns by making positive impressions in his interviews with teams, with particular credit given to his humility and unselfishness. That’s going to have positive implications on his stock.
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Morez Johnson Jr. was also one of the combine’s biggest risers. Sources told CBS Sports he’s now in play in the late lottery, and other teams with picks in the early 20s acknowledged that they no longer expect Johnson to be available there.
If all three players end up going in the lottery, it will mark the first time since 2007 that a college basketball program has produced three non-freshman lottery picks. Perhaps not coincidentally, the last team to do it, the Florida Gators, were also national champions.
Koa Peat is asking questions
Koa Peat’s struggles shooting the basketball this week were well-documented as his new mechanics seem to have backfired and erased whatever progress he made during the season. The unfortunate truth is that Peat’s issues were a popular subject of conversation in the gym on Monday, and while that doesn’t take away from all the other things Peat can do to impact winning, it is expected to have some impact on his draft stock.
Consequently, many now wonder if Peat’s shooting concerns could impact his decision to stay in this draft, with both a major NIL payday and another Final Four-caliber roster waiting for him at Arizona. Also, the 2027 NBA Draft has significantly less star power, which could allow him to be a much higher selection. Well, apparently Peat may be wondering that too. Multiple league sources indicated that during his team interviews, Peat reportedly asked executives themselves for feedback about whether he should stay in the draft. While gathering that type of direct feedback is the exact point of going through the NBA Draft process, and he should be credited for his willingness ask questions and get the best advice available, it does reveal that a final decision for Peat has not yet been made.
New strategy for late first or second draft picks, as they decrease in value
Speaking of stay-and-go decisions, for all of the talk about the increased NIL market pulling players back to college this year, we have started to see the impact on the other side this week. For an NBA team who own picks in the late first or second rounds, there’s real concern that those assets are not as valuable as expected, or once were. Ironically, it may be the late first-round picks in particular, because of their correlating salary guarantees, that could be viewed as almost a liability at this point.
Both teams drafting in the late first round and second round are clearly incentivized to get as many players to stay in the draft as possible in order to maximize the depth of the class, and consequently the value of their picks. That can result in almost a recruiting-type process where teams strongly encourage prospects to stay in, even with promises of fully guaranteed contracts if they can land them in the second round. That may not be enough to pull them away from the college NIL market, but it is providing them with options.
Players like UNC transfer commitment Matthew Able, who performed well in the five-on-five games, could be a prime target for these types of overtures. He wasn’t viewed as a likely first-round pick entering this week and might have a real chance to boost his stock by transferring to North Carolina next year. But it’s totally logical for a team to try to get him to stay in the draft, lock him into a long-term deal, albeit guaranteed, but at low money. We’ve seen OKC and Memphis take similar approaches with players like Ajay Mitchell and Cam Spencer in recent years, and those have blossomed into two of the most team-friendly deals in the NBA.
It’s something for colleges to be aware of, and may just end up driving the NIL price up.
The debate and manipulation of Malachi Moreno’s stock
Speaking of stock that could impact a stay-or-go decision, there were reports this week that Kentucky’s Malachi Moreno had attracted attention from teams in the mid to late first round. While that certainly may be true, many of those teams also hold second-round picks, and many of the scouts I spoke to expressed skepticism that Moreno would crack the first round this year.
Instead, those reports could be viewed as negotiating leverage with Kentucky in order to command the highest possible valuation for Moreno’s return to college and Lexington. The fact that Moreno chose not to play five-on-five, while higher-ranked bigs like Rueben Chinyelu, Tarris Reed, and Flory Bidunga all opted in, was also being viewed as an indication that Moreno’s representation was being very deliberate about controlling how the big man was being perceived.
Ultimately, most still expect him to return to school.
