2026 NBA Draft Combine risers and fallers: The Big Three hold serve; Cameron Carr, Morez Johnson Jr. impress

CHICAGO — The basketball world descended into Chicago this week for the 2026 NBA Draft Combine to get a first-hand glimpse at dozens of NBA hopefuls ahead of next month’s draft. One takeaway was clear from the jump: That Michigan frontcourt was nasty. 

With head coach Dusty May in attendance, the reigning national champions put on a show. Michigan center Aday Mara, forward Morez Johnson Jr. and jumbo wing Yaxel Lendeborg all posted ridiculous measurables. There’s a legitimate chance that Michigan has three lottery picks in June. 

Pretty, pretty good.

Let’s dive into the risers and fallers after a packed week of festivities in the Windy City.

Holding steady: The Big Three

Scouts are split on whether this draft has three or four Tier 1 prospects. I think it’s three, and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Duke’s Cameron Boozer will all exit Chicago in terrific shape. Dybantsa’s measurements and athletic testing results were top-notch, as expected. Boozer passed all his quizzes with flying colors, including posting a superb 7-foot-1½ wingspan. No news was good news on the Peterson front. 

Lots can change in a month, but the early vibe out of Chicago was that Peterson, Dybantsa and Boozer are well-positioned to be the top-three selections in some order. UNC star Caleb Wilson’s highlights might be the best of the bunch, and he has a massive chip on his shoulder at all times, but he’s a shade behind that top trio at this point for most decision-makers. — Isaac Trotter

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Adam Finkelstein

Riser: Cameron Carr, Baylor

It’s rare for a prospect viewed as a near-consensus first-round lock to play in the five-on-five games, but Carr bet on himself, and it paid off. He went for 30 points on 9-for-18 shooting from the floor and 6-for-12 from behind the three-point line. That performance came on the heels of measuring at 6-foot-4.5 without shoes and a massive 7-foot-0.75 wingspan. In a draft that lacks great depth at the wing, there may not be another prospect, particularly outside the lottery, who can match his overlap of length, athleticism and shot-making. All three were on full display this week. — Adam Finkelstein

Riser: Jayden Quaintance, Kentucky

Quaintance certainly looks the part. The Kentucky big man has eye-popping measurables, especially with a wingspan that checked in north of 7-foot-5, and when healthy, he is one of the most terrifying defensive prospects in this class. He just moves differently … when healthy.

Quaintance’s outlook hinges on the medicals and whether there will be any red flags about his ability to stay healthy long-term.

After only playing four games for Kentucky during the 2025-26 season, Quaintance did all the athletic testing and shooting drills in Chicago. He told reporters that he is “95% healthy” in his road to recovery from a torn ACL, and his pro day drew rave reviews. Quaintance measured well, interviewed well and if the medicals come back clean, he could certainly hear his name called in the late-lottery. — Trotter

Riser: Morez Johnson Jr., Michigan

Johnson didn’t need to play five-on-five to help his draft stock. He measured bigger than expected, at 6-foot-9 without shoes, had a massive 7-foot-3.5 wingspan, and an NBA-ready 250-pound frame. His combined results also reinforced the growth of his two-way versatility that helped take his stock to new levels this year at Michigan. His shooting mechanics looked consistent and sound in shooting drills, and his mobility and total athleticism checked out as well. 

In total, he looked every part of a versatile two-way role player and now has late lottery buzz — Finkelstein

Faller: Dailyn Swain, Texas

On one hand, Swain measured well. 6-foot-6.5 without shoes, with a 6-foot-10 wingspan are great dimensions for a wing who could also be a secondary ball handler. His shooting has always been viewed as a swing skill, and while he made strides this past year at Texas, neither his pro day nor his combine performance did much to alleviate those long-term concerns. 

Then, when Swain opted to play in the five-on-five, he didn’t distinguish himself as a potential first-rounder. He finished with eight points on 3-for-8 shooting, but also committed five turnovers, against less than ferocious defense. Given how high Swain’s turnover rate was last year, that was not the lasting impression he hoped to leave in Chicago. And then to cap off the week and raise more questions, Swain dropped out of the second day of games, instead of trying to end on a better note. — Finkelstein

Riser: Tarris Reed, UConn

Reed has an NBA-caliber body. He’s just under 6-foot-10 without shoes, has a 7-foot-4.5 wingspan, and a powerful 263-pound frame. His opening game wasn’t spectacular, with 9 points and 5 rebounds, but he ended on a high note with 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 blocks on Thursday. Most of all, he showed an understanding of how to play in NBA concepts. He set heavy screens, rolled hard, operated out of DHOs, made the appropriate passes, and showed switchability defensively. Essentially, during a week in which the numbers get sometimes overemphasized, he made basketball plays that are translatable to an NBA niche, and it was noticeable to the scouts in attendance. — Finkelstein

Faller: Koa Peat, Arizona

Peat did not shoot the ball well, but it wasn’t just about the number that went in the basket; it was about the way it looked. He has clearly tweaked his mechanics in the pre-draft process, and it appears to have backfired. Peat’s release was low with a glaring hitch, which was more like a pause, on the way up. While his shooting was a known weakness, this was notably worse than expected, and seemed to negate the gains that he appeared to be making during the season. Candidly, Peat’s shooting struggles were a talking point around the gym on Monday. While his value is based on other factors and his impact on winning is undeniable, this will factor into his overall stock and thus could impact his stay-or-go decision. — Finkelstein

Arizona star Koa Peat dishes on upcoming stay-or-go decision amid shaky showing at NBA Draft Combine

Isaac Trotter

Riser: Alex Karaban, UConn

Karaban was the best shooter at the combine, making a combined 74.8% across all shooting drills, and narrowly beating out both Bennett Stritz and Christian Anderson Jr. Athletically, expectations might have been low, but he faired far better than he did in this setting two years ago. 

Karaban’s standing vertical was nearly 6 inches better than in 2024 and even his measurements were better than expected, at 6-foot-6.75 without shoes and a notable 6-foot-11 wingspan. Not surprisingly, he was also getting rave reviews from his interviews. — Finkelstein

Faller: Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt

Tanner entered this week looking to perform well enough to stay in the NBA Draft, but the pendulum has started to swing the other way. Tanner is just really, really small, which is a stumbling block for some decision-makers. He measured under 5-foot-11 and weighed 166.8 pounds. Tanner also didn’t shed any of the shooting questions that some evaluators still have. 

He’s tough, cerebral and a terrific athlete, but a return to Vanderbilt seems like the most likely outcome at this point. He will be firmly in the mix for Preseason SEC Player of the Year. — Trotter

Riser: Baba Miller, Cincinnati

The talent has always been there for Miller, and it’s starting to percolate at just the right time. Miller had a really productive year at Cincinnati, and he parlayed that with a strong week in Chicago. Miller measured well (6-foot-10.5 without shoes), tested well and played even better in a pair of scrimmages. Miller just has to be a threat from downtown to play the 4. The jumper evaded him this past season at Cincinnati, but he showed in Wednesday’s scrimmage that he’s capable from beyond the arc.

Bigs who pass, dribble and potentially shoot are coveted in the league. Miller’s strong week should earn him a call on draft night in the second round. — Trotter