2026 NCAA Tournament: Which First Four team is most capable of a deep March run?

It’s a commonly held belief that the NCAA Tournament begins this Thursday. After all, you have until Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET — when (8) Ohio State vs. (9) TCU tips off — to join CBS Sports’ Men’s Bracket Games.

And sure, Thursday is the first day of true madness, with tip times ranging from just after noon Eastern until after 10 p.m., when (2) Houston takes on (15) Idaho. It’s called the “First Round” after all. But since 2011, the idea that the First Round is really the first taste of March Madness is a misconception.

That’s because, since 2011, we’ve had the First Four: the Tuesday- and Wednesday-night games in Dayton, Ohio. This year, doing the honors of actually beginning the NCAA Tournament are …

First Four

Tuesday, March 17UD Arena (Dayton)

Wednesday, March 18UD Arena (Dayton)

Ignore them at your own peril: Since 2011, 13 teams that won a First Four game went on to win at least one more tournament game.

Last year was just the second time that no First Four team advanced past the First Round. The other time it happened, in 2019, led to a major breakthrough in the next tournament: UCLA going from First Four to Final Four in 2021 (there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020). Could we see history repeat itself? 

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With all due respect to No. 16 seeds UMBC, Howard, Prairie View A&M and Lehigh, we’ll focus on the No. 11 seeds, ranking their chances to advance past not only the First Four, but the first round, too.

1. SMU

SMU is headed to the dance for the first time since 2017, but the Mustangs are limping into it having lost five of their last six. Lucky for them, though, one of their key players is no longer actually limping. After missing the team’s last five games, guard B.J. Edwards is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, a development the program announced loud and clear leading up to Selection Sunday.

We’re a big fan of good guard play in March, and in Edwards and Boopie Miller, the Mustangs have two capable lead guards. Fifth-year wing Jaron Pierre Jr. can really fill it up, too: He’s had 20+ points in three of SMU’s last five games, and he shoots 53% from 2 and 38% from 3.

The 3-point potency is a big part of the Mustangs’ appeal: They shot 40% from deep in ACC play, best in the conference. Miller is at 41%, Edwards is at 37%, and Corey Washington is at 40%. Big man Samet Yigitoglu is an effective big man who earns the Mustangs extra possessions.

Overall, this team simply has the makeup of one that can make noise. The guard play can be explosive, the shooting comes from all over, and the experience factor is very much there as well: KenPom has Andy Enfield’s team with the fifth-most D-I experience in the country. The Mustangs have a wide range of outcomes, but that’s what we’re looking for in a First Four team: one that can make a run if given the chance.

2. NC State

All year long, NC State has seemingly left everyone — including coach Will Wade — wanting more. The Wolfpack show really good signs and then stumble over themselves with uninspired performances. Case in point: On Jan. 20, three days after a home loss to ACC cellar dweller Georgia Tech, NC State went to Clemson and won in overtime. That kicked off a six-game winning streak. It looked like a team finding its stride.

Then NC State lost by 41(!) to Louisville, lost by one to Miami, pounded short-handed North Carolina and then dropped its final four games of the regular season, including losses to lowly Notre Dame and Stanford and 29-point defeats against Virginia and Duke.

The Wolfpack lacks the requisite size to hang with some of the country’s lengthiest teams. Ven-Allen Lubin, listed at 6-foot-9, is the tallest player in the rotation. They don’t generate second chances and can struggle cleaning up the defensive boards, too. NC State finished 12th in defensive efficiency in ACC play and 18th (dead last) in defensive rebounding rate.

But then there’s that offense. The Wolfpack shoot 39% from 3, have a top-10 lowest turnover rate nationally. Quadir Copeland is a bulldog intent on getting to the run — he shot a team-high 179 free throws this season — and Darrion Williams has major March bonafides as a standout in Texas Tech’s run to the Elite Eight last year. Paul McNeil can get hot as a blowtorch; he’s shooting 43% from 3 and has made 102 this season.

Wade’s McNeese pulled a 12-5 upset over Clemson last year. Perhaps he can make some more March magic this year.

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3. Texas

Texas lost four of its final five regular-season games and then unceremoniously flubbed its SEC Tournament opener with a 10-point loss to Ole Miss. Sensing a theme here? High-major teams that showed a few highs and more frustrating lows and then had a rough go down the stretch find themselves heading to Dayton.

Texas actually beat NC State in a 102-97 barn burner back in November. The Longhorns shot 65% inside the arc and 50% from 3 in that game (remember when I said NC State can be indifferent about playing defense?) and made 28 of 33 free throws.

The basics — good offense, questionable defense — are about the same for NC State and Texas, meaning their showdown Tuesday night could be a fun one. The way the teams score their bunches of points, though, is very different. Texas gets to the free-throw line a ton and doesn’t shoot it great from 3. Texas crashes the boards hard, and Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitis figure to be a handful for the Wolfpack. The Longhorns operate very well out of the pick and roll, an area the Wolfpack can really struggle to defend.

Maybe Texas beats NC State and exposes the flaws the Wolfpack have had all year. But going any further — the Longhorns would get BYU in the first round — seems a bit of a stretch.

4. Miami (Ohio)

The darlings of the basketball world, Miami (Ohio), went 31-0 in the regular season and promptly dropped its MAC Tournament opener to UMass, making for a nervous Selection Sunday.

What should you know about the RedHawks? Well, first, they can really shoot it. MAC Player of the Year Peter Suder is shooting 60% from 2 and just a shade under 40% from 3. With at least four capable perimeter shooters on the floor at all times, Miami (Ohio’s) five-out offense can really create some tough situations for opponents, and that could be the case for SMU and Yigitoglu. Suder and guard Luke Skaljac run their two-man and pick-and-roll games with precision, and because of the presence of wings such as Eian Elmer (43% from 3) and Brant Byers (39%), opponents are put in a tough spot knowing whether to come off their man and help or stay glued to the outside.

Will Miami (Ohio) keep its Cinderella run going? The RedHawks have been incredibly clutch in late-game scenarios and have been much more than a great story. A 31-1 record doesn’t happen by accident. But they will need some more late-game heroics — and a superb defensive effort out of a group that has been mostly ordinary on that end — to make a run.