ACC predicted order of finish: Duke picked to win, UNC overrated, NC State underrated in preseason poll

The ACC released its preseason predicted order of finish on Tuesday ahead of the 2025-26 college basketball season.Duke was picked to win the conference in the annual preseason poll, while NC State forward Darrion Williams was given conference preseason Player of the Year honors. Williams transferred from Texas Tech to NC State to play for first-year coach Will Wade this offseason.

After reaching the Final Four for the first time in the Jon Scheyer era, Duke will look to get back to college basketball’s biggest stage with a handful of key newcomers on the roster. One of those players is former five-star forward Cameron Boozer — the son of former NBA great and Duke player Carlos Boozer — who is in contention to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Rounding out the top five of the ACC standings behind Duke are Louisville, North Carolina, NC State and Virginia. Two of those teams will have first-year coaches in Wade (at NC State) and Ryan Odom (at Virginia). Odom was hired this offseason to replace former coach Tony Bennett, who retired just weeks before Virginia’s season-opener last fall.

Here is the full poll, followed by overrated and underrated observations from the predicted order of finish.

ACC preseason predicted order of finish

Overrated: North Carolina

Predicted finish: 3

I wrote about North Carolina earlier this week and why they were labeled “overrated” in our annual preseason AP Top 25 poll overview. The Tar Heels were preseason ranked No. 25 in that poll, and I explained why NC State should’ve gotten the nod at the final spot, so it’s only right to double down because UNC was picked ahead of NC State in this poll, too.

This season is going to be a make-or-break year for UNC coach Hubert Davis. After getting into the NCAA Tournament as one of the final four teams in the field, UNC will have to be better this season to avoid sweating on Selection Sunday. UNC’s resume included just one win over a ranked opponent and the Tar Heels went 0-3 against Duke. I do like North Carolina’s frontcourt of Caleb Wilson and Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar. Alabama transfer Jarin Stevenson is also someone who could contribute to winning. I still think UNC is an NCAA Tournament team, but the Tar Heels are going to have to show up in marquee nonconference games against Kentucky, Kansas and Michigan State this season. Betting odds to win conference +700

Underrated: NC State

Predicted finish: 4

The hype around NC State is real. Less than two years removed from a miraculous run to the Final Four under former coach Kevin Keatts, Wade has assembled a roster that can compete for the ACC crown right away. 

The obvious headliner from NC State’s portal class is Williams, who played a huge role in Texas Tech reaching the Elite Eight this past spring. Williams is a bulldozer down low and is a matchup nightmare for smaller defenders. He can raise the floor and ceiling of this group. Tre Holloman (Michigan State), Terrance Arceneaux (Kentucky) and Ven-Allen Lubin (North Carolina) are three more names I’m keeping an eye on. I wouldn’t be shocked if NC State finishes in the top three of the ACC standings. Betting odds to win conference +700

Overrated: Virginia

Predicted finish: 5

Last season was chaotic for Virginia, as the program finished ninth in the ACC with an 8-12 conference record. The Cavaliers went out and hired Odom away from his post at VCU to bring life back into the program. The hire was good in a nutshell, but I have questions about the roster that make me think Virginia could finish below fifth in the final conference standings.

I also like some of the teams behind Virginia, such as SMU, Clemson, Miami and Syracuse (more on them shortly). The name I’m keeping an eye on this season is San Francisco transfer Malik Thomas, who averaged nearly 20 points per game last season. If he can bring scoring to a team that finished No. 346 among all Division I teams in scoring offense, Virginia could outperform its preseason ranking. Betting odds to win conference +2200

Underrated: Syracuse

Predicted finish: 9

Similar to Davis at North Carolina, this is also a make-or-break season for coach Adrian Autry at Syracuse. The program finished 14-19 last season (7-13 in ACC play) and missed the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive season.

Syracuse is my sleeper team in the ACC this year. J.J. Starling returns and the program also added a pair of top-35 recruits from the 2025 cycle in Sadiq White Jr. and Kiyan Anthony, who is the son of former Syracuse great and NBA legend Carmelo Anthony. Outside of the top four or five teams, the ACC is wide open. Look for Syracuse to finish in the top half of the ACC standings. Betting odds to win conference +5000

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Preseason All-ACC First Team

Second Team

Underrated: Isaiah Evans, G/F, Duke

Out of all the returners in the ACC, there’s not a player that has a chance to improve his draft stock more than Evans. The former blue-chip recruit primarily came off the bench during his freshman season and despite receiving some draft buzz, decided to return to school for his sophomore season.

Evans has been compared to former Duke player and current member of the Toronto Raptors, Brandon Ingram. Evans shot 41.6% from the 3-point line last season in 13.7 minutes per game. He has a chance to solidify himself as Duke’s second-best player behind Boozer. If he does that, he will be in the running to earn first-team ACC honors.

Overrated: Ryan Conwell, G, Louisville 

It’s never easy to single out any player on these lists, but if I had to choose one, it would be Conwell. Part of that reasoning is how much of a step forward I think Evans will take at Duke this season. The other factor is that Louisville is loaded with talent. I firmly believe that Mikel Brown Jr. — whether it’s from Day 1 or in March — will be the Cardinals’ best player. 

Conwell was one of several key newcomers on Louisville’s roster. He had a fantastic season at Xavier and posted similar scoring numbers during his 2023-24 season at Indiana State. Conwell is a volume 3-point shooter who will help tremendously. Part of my reasoning is that there will be a lot of mouths to feed, which could open the door for someone like Evans to land on the first team over Conwell.