A team that earns the No. 1 ranking from AP voters rarely loses its spot atop the rankings without sustaining a loss.
Notice I said rarely; it doesn’t happen often. But it does happen.
And my official guess: It happens this week for a third time this season when the rankings refresh on Monday. And again, it will be Purdue that loses the No. 1 spot despite remaining undefeated, if indeed voters make the switch.
The preseason No. 1 Boilermakers fell from No. 1 to No. 2 in Week 2 despite a 2-0 start with double digit wins over Evansville and Oakland — surmounted by then-No. 2 Houston jumping one spot. Purdue reclaimed the No. 1 ranking last week after defeating Alabama and Akron. But they’re positioned to fall back from No. 1 again, as you can gather by this predictive diatribe now, despite a perfect 2-0 week that featured wins over Memphis and Texas Tech.
Arizona’s just been that good. Two wins over top-25 teams were on its resume entering the week after defeating then-No. 3. Florida on opening day and No. 15 UCLA last week, good enough to potentially give it the best resume in the sport. That put the Wildcats at No. 4 in last week’s rankings. A true road win Wednesday over No. 3 UConn has them poised to leap again. And there should be no doubt about which team has the best resume in college basketball.
I don’t think it’ll be unanimous, to be clear. Voters who had Purdue at No. 1 may keep it at No. 1, the idea being you have to quite literally lose a game to lose the No. 1 ranking. Houston and Duke may even continue to earn first-place votes. But at the very least, Arizona, which earned two first-place votes last week, will have at least significantly cut into Purdue’s grip at No. 1, if not outright taking the spot.
I’m just the messenger. That’s not my argument nor how I’d necessarily approach the topic. But every week I predict how AP voters will react to the week’s results. And that — along with the below top 25 — is my official prediction.
