Miami University’s NCAA Tournament selection scenarios: Can Redhawks get in with one loss?

It’s important to draw a distinction between resume metrics and predictive metrics when talking about a team like Miami (Ohio) and the NCAA Tournament bubble. Selection decisions are closely tied to your resume and what you’ve accomplished, which is a good thing for Miami. 

The cries are already coming: “But Miami hasn’t even played a Quad 1 game!”

Despite the fact that it has played zero Quad 1 games and is just 1-0 in Quad 2, there is a metric on official NCAA team sheets that acknowledges the brilliance of an unbeaten start for Miami, which improved to 27-0 with a 91-77 win over Bowling Green on Feb. 20.

It’s called Wins Against Bubble (WAB), and it calculates how the average bubble team would perform against your schedule. With a WAB score of 2.18 as of Feb. 22, the No. 22 RedHawks are recognized for having over two more victories than the average bubble team would against their slate.

Up next for Miami

The remaining schedule for Miami which is trying to become the first team since Indiana accomplished the feat in the 1975-76 season.

Feb. 24at Eastern Michigan6:30 pm ESPN+Feb. 27at Western Michigan6 p.m. CBS Sports NetworkMarch 3vs. Toledo7 p.m. ESPN+March 6at Ohio7 p.m. CBS Sports NetworkMarch 12-14MAC Tournament (Cleveland)TBD

If Miami doesn’t win the MAC Tournament and needs an at-large ticket to the Big Dance, WAB will be one of its best friends. The RedHawks were ranked No. 34 in WAB as of Feb. 22. That’s within at-large territory. Where it gets tricky is that any loss against MAC opposition carries a significant WAB penalty.

Here are all the Selection Sunday scenarios for Miami as it heads down this the stretch with its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 in sight.

NCAA Tournament selection scenarios for Miami 

The simple scenario (win MAC Tournament) 

Record: Between 30-4 and 34-0 Confidence level: It’s a partyLikely WAB range: Doesn’t matter

Bust out the balloons and hire a caterer for the watch party. Miami can go 4-0 to close the regular season, 0-4 or something in between. It doesn’t matter, so long as the RedHawks are cutting down the nets inside Cleveland’s Rocket Arena at the end of the MAC Tournament on March 14. 

Winning the MAC Tournament is the only 100% guaranteed path to the Big Dance, and it won’t be easy. The MAC isn’t one of the handful of conferences now offering automatic byes to the semifinals for its top two seeds. The RedHawks will have to win three games in three days against a field consisting exclusively of the league’s top eight teams.

Many of the players on this Miami team were part of a gutting 76-74 loss to Akron in last year’s MAC Tournament title game in which the Zips rallied late to stun the RedHawks. That should only provide more motivation as Miami seeks its first conference tournament title since 2007.

The MAC Madness scenario

Selection Sunday record: 31-1, 32-1 or 33-1Confidence level: Feeling optimisticLikely WAB range: 37-43

Miami could still feel reasonably hopeful about making the Big Dance if it entered the MAC Tournament 31-0 and then dropped a game. While on some level it could matter who the loss came against, the RedHawks would still enter Selection Sunday with a WAB ranking in the at-large realm, regardless of who was responsible for handing them their first defeat.

A loss on a neutral floor in the MAC Tournament would likely come with a WAB cost of around 0.80. If Miami lost 0.80 in WAB today, it would drop the RedHawks from No. 34 in the metric to the low 40s.

The team with the best WAB ranking left out of last year’s field was West Virginia, which arrived at Selection Sunday at No. 43 in the WAB. The 2025 selection process was the first to utilize WAB, so there isn’t a trove of past precedents to rely upon. But WVU’s exclusion last year sets a benchmark for Miami to aim for: don’t fall to No. 43.

Finishing the regular season undefeated and then losing in the MAC Tournament would likely be good enough to keep the RedHawks around or just below that figure, which would be enough for them to enter Selection Sunday with some cautious optimism.

Double-defeat scenario

Selection Sunday record: 30-2, 31-2 or 32-2Confidence level: Feeling nervousLikely WAB range: 43-52

The double-defeat scenario involves Miami losing one regular-season game, in addition to a MAC Tournament game. 

This would not be advisable, as it would likely lead to Miami’s Selection Sunday WAB ranking landing in the mid-40s, at best. However, in this scenario, the opponent for the conference tournament loss could make a difference. If it’s a high-end Quad 2 loss against Akron in the title game, then it would be less costly.

The team with the worst WAB ranking selected to last year’s field was Xavier, which was among the Last Four In at No. 49 in WAB. However, the Musketeers counterbalanced their lagging resume metrics with a predictive metrics profile hovering around 40th nationally. 

Miami University does not have good predictive metrics to fall back upon. So slipping out of the low-to-mid 40s in WAB would make things dicey. If Miami loses twice, a slip of that magnitude is likely, and it would make Selection Sunday uncomfortable.

Three-loss scenario

Selection Sunday record: 29-3, 30-3, 31-3Confidence level: Better brace for disappointmentLikely WAB range: 50-60

A 2-2 finish to the regular season, combined with a loss in the MAC Tournament, would decimate Miami’s at-large chances. In this scenario, the best conceivable outcome would be that the RedHawks lose in the MAC Tournament title game against Akron in a heartbreaking way that tugs on the heartstrings of committee members. But it would be a tough case to make. 

With three losses on its ledger, Miami would almost certainly lag behind other bubble teams in resume metrics. Remember, it’s not just about win-loss record. It’s about the totality of your resume. WAB does a good job of quantifying that, and it wouldn’t be on Miami’s side if the RedHawks lost three times.