NCAA Tournament bracket projection: Duke leads No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday

Duke is heading into Selection Sunday as the No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology after edging Virginia 74-70 in the ACC Tournament title game Saturday night. The Blue Devils are poised to remain the projected top overall even if Michigan defeats Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament title game.

The Wolverines will be the No. 2 overall seed in the final CBS Sports projection with a victory over Purdue. If the Boilermakers win, Arizona will be the No. 2 overall seed followed by Michigan.

Florida will be the final No. 1 seed in our projected 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, regardless of what happens in any of Sunday’s five conference tournament title games. The Gators lost 91-74 to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament semifinals on Saturday but benefitted from losses by Houston and UConn.

Houston would have seized the fourth No. 1 seed in Bracketology with a win over Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament title game, but it fell 79-74. With the Cougars and Gators both losing, UConn also had a chance to claim the final No. 1 seed.

The Huskies lost 72-52 to St. John’s in the Big East Tournament title game. Thus, the final No. 1 seed remains in the Gators’ hands. About 40% of Final Four spots have gone to No. 1 seeds since the men’s tournament expanded in 1985, with the typical Final Four seeing an annual average of 1.6 No. 1 seeds (2025 was the second time in tournament history that all four No. 1 seeds made it). 

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Bracketology top seeds

Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.

Where the No. 1 seeds will play

Regardless of what the selection committee does with the order of the No. 1 seeds, their region placements won’t change. Each of the four No. 1 seeds shown above are virtually guaranteed to be slotted in these projected locations. As the first teams entered during the bracketing process, they have top dibs on location preference, and each of them are slotted in their natural geographic regions.

An unfortunate wrinkle for Florida is that it will likely end up in the South Region with Houston. The region culminates in Houston, which could put the Gators at a potential home-court disadvantage in the Elite Eight if both teams were to make it that far. Houston successfully passed off its hosting responsibilities for the South Region to Rice University, which freed up the Cougars to be permitted to play in their home city. 

Even if Houston had won the Big 12 Tournament and landed as the projected fourth No. 1 seed in Bracketology, the situation wouldn’t have changed much. In that scenario, the Gators would have landed as the top No. 2 seed in our projection and would have been in the South along with the Cougars.

Sorting through the No. 2 seeds

Houston and UConn are firmly on the No. 2 seed line. But the final two No. 2 seeds are up for debate. Vanderbilt and Purdue have risen to claim the other two spots following excellent showings in their conference tournaments. Both the Commodores and Boilermakers rank in the top 10 in Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and KPI as of Sunday.

Those are two vital results-based metrics looked at by the selection committee. In those metrics, the Commodores and Boilermakers rank ahead of fellow No. 2 seed contenders such as Iowa State, Michigan State and Illinois. Vandy’s dominant win over Florida sent the Commodores surging past Michigan State, Iowa State and Nebraska to No. 9 in WAB ranking. Purdue is now No. 7 in WAB. Neither team would be subject to a significant penalty with a loss against a quality opponent Sunday in their conference title games.