The first ACC matchups of the 2025-26 college basketball season will take place on Tuesday, with the North Carolina Tar Heels facing the Florida State Seminoles in one of the four contests. No. 12 UNC (12-1) only has a loss to Michigan State on its resume and has won six straight games. FSU (7-6) is 0-4 against power conference teams but is coming off back-to-back wins over mid-majors. Both teams last played on Monday, Dec. 22.
Tipoff is at 7p.m. ET at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C. The Tar Heels are 14.5-point favorites in the latest Florida State vs. North Carolina odds, while the over/under is 165.5. Before making any North Carolina vs. Florida State picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your $5+ bet wins:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and it enters Week 7 on a sizzling 7-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has simulated FSU vs. UNC 10,000 times and just revealed its men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for UNC vs. FSU:
Florida State vs. North Carolina spread:
North Carolina -14.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Florida State vs. North Carolina over/under:
165.5 points
Florida State vs. North Carolina money line:
North Carolina -1370, Florida State +784
Florida State vs. North Carolina picks:
See picks at SportsLine
Florida State vs. North Carolina streaming:
Fubo (Try for free)
New users can check out the latest bet365 bonus code to get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet:
How to make North Carolina vs. Florida State picks
After simulating Florida State vs. North Carolina 10,000 times, SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (165.5 points). Both teams have overwhelmingly favored the Under this season, as it is 9-4 for Carolina and 8-5 for Florida State. The Tar Heels have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven games, while the recent matchup history has also been taken into account. The team’s last five meetings have seen under 160 points scored in four of them as they’ve averaged 155.4 combined points.
As the heavy favorites, UNC is expected to dictate the style of play, and the Heels are a defense-first team this season. They rank 16th, nationally, in points allowed per game but sit outside the top 100 in points scored per game. As for FSU, it leads the ACC with 9.8 steals per game, so many of its defensive possessions don’t even end with a shot attempt by the opponent. With these factors, the Under hits well over 60% of the time.
The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins UNC vs. FSU, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida State vs. North Carolina spread to back, all from the model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, and find out.
.webp?ssl=1 "Mercedes’ best and worst moments from 2025 and driver head-to-heads")
