The Big Ten was the best conference in college basketball last season, but the SEC is primed to regain that crown in 2026-27. The SEC flexed its muscles this spring in free agency in both retention and in the transfer portal. The SEC retained 10 of its top-30 scorers from a year ago, and none of those top-30 scorers transferred out of the league. Oh, and it poached 11 top-30 scorers from the four other high-major leagues, headlined by No. 2-rated Iowa State transfer Milan Momcilovic, who picked Kentucky over Louisville and Arizona.
That means 21 top-30 scorers from high-major leagues will suit up in the SEC next season. For reference, the Big Ten is second with … 14. The amount of proven talent in the SEC is off-the-charts good.
Way-too-early Big Ten basketball tiers: Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State primed to shine in 2026-27
Isaac Trotter
The winner of this league is going to be battle-tested. With summer practices tipping off this week, it’s time to take an inventory of each team. These conference tiers provide a preferable way to contextualize each roster’s outlook.
Spoiler alert: I have 10 teams with a top-25 grade. Loaded league. Just LOADED.
Tier 1 – Title contenders: Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins.Tier 2 – Top 25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier.Tier 3 – Tournament team: These teams have built good rosters and could flirt with top-25 status, but let’s be honest: they aren’t serious title threats.Tier 4 – Bubble, even with a 76-team field: A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle.Tier 5 – The basement: These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.
Let’s dive in.
Tier 1: National title contenders
1. Florida
2025-26 record: 27-8, 16-2 in SEC play.
Postseason: No. 1 seed; lost in Round of 32.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Isaiah Brown, Wing CJ Ingram II, G Alex Lloyd, F Arturas Butajevas, F Domen Petrovic, C Viktor Mikic, G AJ Brown
The scoop: Florida will be the best rebounding team in the nation with Alex Condon, Tommy Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu back in the fold in a mark of unprecedented retention. All three are All-SEC players in 2026-27. You can’t say that about any other SEC club. Elite rebounding, in layman’s terms, equals more scoring chances. Florida won the rebounding plus turnover delta by 10.4 possessions per game against high-major foes, per CBB Analytics. That ranked second only behind Duke. The Gators’ massive shot-volume edge gives Florida the highest floor in all of college basketball.
This Florida team can’t stink next year.
But the Gators’ ceiling hinges on jumpers going in (novel concept).
Florida ranked in the 22nd percentile in efficiency on jump shots, and Todd Golden is relying heavily on internal development to fix those brick-laying woes. Incremental growth from Haugh and Condon wouldn’t hurt, but frankly, point guard Boogie Fland has to be better, and he will with help from the Year 2 transfer jump. More playing time for Urban Klavzar will help; the 6-foot-1 junior is the best 3-point shooter on the roster. Another surge for second-unit guards like Isaiah Brown and Alex Lloyd won’t hurt either.
Kentucky transfer Denzel Aberdeen is the wild card. The senior guard is trying to get a fifth year of eligibility because he only played 41 minutes as a true freshman in 2022-23. But he played in 12 of 33 games (36%) and was not hurt. Typically, a player who suits up for 30% or fewer of the games and then suffers a season-ending injury can get a year back. Aberdeen does not hit either of those benchmarks, so his case, under the current rules, is shaky. But there don’t seem to be any rules in college athletics anymore, so the wait continues. There’s no doubt that Aberdeen would help this group considerably. The 6-foot-5 guard can be a jolt of instant offense, and he shot 62% at the rim and 36% from 3-point range on 171 attempts last year.
If Aberdeen can’t play, Florida is still in very good shape. Fland, Haugh, Condon and Chinyelu are all useful-to-excellent individual defenders. This could easily be a top-5 defense in the sport. You can win a ton of games with smashmouth basketball that relies on defense, rebounding and free throws, plus Condon and Chinyelu have taken huge strides as efficient, low-post scorers who can punish mismatches.
But Aberdeen’s splash of shot-making would vault Florida into a different zip code. It would walk into every game with an insane margin of error.
2. Texas
2025-26 record: 21-15, 9-9 in SEC play.
Postseason: No. 11 seed; lost in the Sweet 16
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Amari Evans, G Mikey Lewis, G Bo Ogden, G Joe Sterling, F John Clark, G Mantas Laurencikas, C Lewis Obiorah, F Coleman Elkins
The scoop: Texas dipped its toes into every area of roster-building to construct a no-doubt contender. Sean Miller retained star center Matas Vokietaitis. The physical 7-footer will be one of the best big men in the SEC next year. He went into the high school ranks and landed top talent, headlined by uber-athletic top-20 guard Austin Goosby and top-50 sharpshooter Bo Ogden. Then, Texas did yeoman’s work in the portal. You could make a case that the Longhorns landed one of the top offensive players in Colorado transfer Isaiah Johnson and one of the best defensive players in TCU transfer forward David Punch.
Texas’ frontcourt will knock some teeth out, and the athleticism on this roster jumps off the tape, especially when Goosby and Auburn transfer Elyjah Freeman are filling the lanes and flying in transition.
Texas’ defense will be way, way better. It has avenues to create advantages offensively in a bunch of different ways. Post-ups for Vokietaitis. Isolation for Punch. Johnson’s speedy pick-and-rolls. You get the picture. Texas has pathways to be a top-20 offense and defense, at minimum.
This is why Sean Miller left Xavier for Texas. He has enormous resources and the ability to put together a big-time roster.
It’s time for Texas to win. No excuses.
Tier 2: Top 25-caliber club
3. Alabama
2025-26 record: 25-10, 13-5 in SEC play.
Postseason: No. 4 seed, lost in the Sweet 16
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Qayden Samuels, G/F Jaxon Richardson, F Cole Cloer, F Keitenn Bristow, F Jamarion Davis-Fleming, G Tarris Bouie, F Collins Onyejiaka
The scoop: Alabama has a good roster, and Nate Oats is on the sideline. Do you need to hear anything else? This team is going to be good.
(I’m being told more analysis is needed.)
This backcourt should absolutely smash. If senior Aden Holloway can keep his head on straight after some off-the-court snafus, he will be in the mix to lead the SEC in 3-point shooting. Yet again, Alabama got some great news at the stay-or-go NBA Draft deadline with Amari Allen choosing to run it back. The 6-foot-6 guard can play on or off the ball and just has a nose for the basketball. He averaged 11.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals while shooting 35% from 3-point range as the third or fourth option last year for Alabama. His counting stats are going to go kaboom with the higher usage rate headed his way.
Allen and Holloway is a terrifying backcourt, but Oats has real depth here too. Prized freshman Qayden Samuels is all of 6-foot-5 and can really, really score. 6-foot-6 freshman Jaxon Richardson is an insane athlete who could push to start at the 3, and both Cole Cloer and London Jemison are rangy shooters who should fit seamlessly into this mix.
Alabama’s defensive versatility should be a bit better thanks to the influx of perimeter size and switchability. Alabama had limited personnel when it started three small guards, and it finished 61st in defensive efficiency. This year, Holloway is the only rotation player who is shorter than 6-foot-5. Bigger is better in the SEC, and Alabama will have more arrows in the quiver on that end. Alabama’s defense is going to be improved, but I still hesitate to say it will be a top-30 unit. A lot rides on the shoulders of Brandon Garrison. The big man is mobile and better defending on the perimeter than in the paint, but his processing and decision-making on both ends can make you want to rip your hair out.
It’s impossible for an Oats-coached offense to stink. This roster will be very good on that end. If the defense is a top-40 unit, Alabama is going to be in the mix for the league title … again.
That’s just what Oats does.
4. Arkansas
2025-26 record: 28-9 overall, 13-5 in SEC play
Postseason: No. 4 seed; lost in Sweet 16
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: Wing JJ Andrews, Wing Abdou Toure, G Isaiah Sealy, C Maper Maker, C Paulo Semedo, G Davion Thompson (expected to commit to Arkansas this week).
The scoop: John Calipari is at it again. The Razorbacks have reeled in one of the most talented rosters in the SEC. Point of attack defense should be a major strength. Five-star guard Jordan Smith Jr. is a voracious defender who is gushing with winning intangibles. He’s not the polished offensive dynamo of a Darius Acuff Jr., but Smith will be one of the best freshmen in the SEC from the get-go. He’s just the tip of the spear for an Arkansas backcourt that is littered with options. Georgia transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson can score 15 points a game in his sleep, especially if Arkansas keeps playing fast. Billy Richmond III is a terror defensively and an effort-play machine. Young freshmen wings like JJ Andrews and Abdou Toure are so toolsy and play with a ton of force. Arkansas is going to hit you, and there’s not much you can do about it.
This backcourt could be getting another influx, too. Prized four-star Davion Thompson is expected to commit to Arkansas this week and reclassify to join the Hogs immediately. There are some shooting questions on this roster which made Thompson a priority. He was one of the best shooters on the EYBL circuit, draining 52% of his triples on 7.7 attempts per game.
Arkansas would be a Tier 1, National Championship contender if the frontcourt had a bit more bite. Incoming freshman Miikka Muurinen profiles as a 7-foot stretch 4 with ball skills, length, athleticism and mobility. But is he tough enough to stick his face in the fan and make the hard winning plays every night? Furman transfer Cooper Bowser would be a rock-solid backup. I don’t quite see it as a SEC starter. Another late frontcourt add would be helpful, and Calipari is sniffing around the JUCO market as we speak. A Murrinen-Boswer frontcourt is fine, but it won’t be near the top of the pecking order of best frontcourts in the SEC.
One way to make up for iffy interior defense is to be hellacious at the point of attack. Arkansas has the personnel to do it. If it’s consistently turning the water off for straight-line drives, some of Arkansas’ interior issues could be masked.
Arkansas has athletes for days. This roster is just brimming in upside, but missing out on one of the prized centers in the portal could be the difference between winning the title and making a run to the second weekend.
5. Kentucky
2025-26 record: 22-14 overall, 10-8 in SEC play
Postseason: No. 7 seed; Lost in the Round of 32.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Justin McBride, C Franck Kepnang, F Ousmane N’Diaye, F Braydon Hawthorne, G Trent Noah, G Jerone Morton, G Mason Williams, C Reece Potter
The scoop: Mark Pope was out to right some wrongs after last year’s turbulence. He didn’t have any true point guards after Jaland Lowe’s season-ending injury, so he went and landed two of them from the portal in Alex Wilkins and Zoom Diallo. He didn’t have enough shooting, so he went out and landed the best sniper in the country in Milan Momcilovic.
On paper, Kentucky’s rotation has two creators, two snipers, a big man in Malachi Moreno who will be a first-round pick next year, and a bench mix of veterans who want to be role players with a splash of next-level potential in 6-foot-8 redshirt-freshman wing Braydon Hawthorne.
This personnel is better-positioned to play the style that Pope wants to run. More skill, passing and shooting. Fewer smashmouth thumpers.
Kentucky’s turnover rate may be its most important stat. This personnel is not built to garner a ton of second-chance opportunities, so playing clean is essential to becoming a top-10 offense. That falls on Pope to scheme it up, and Diallo, Wilkins and Moreno to make good decisions because they will be the action guys of this attack. All three of them posted turnover rates over 17% last year. That ain’t it. But with the added spacing that Momcilovic provides, maybe that will settle into place. Ball control is another huge reason why Williams could earn a spot in the starting lineup over international forward Ousmane N’Diaye. Williams is a better shooter and plays so much cleaner than N’Diaye, who turned it over on 25% of his drives.
Bold prediction, No. 1: Kentucky’s defense is better than expected because it has a ton of positional size and both Moreno and Kepnang give the ‘Cats an elite back-line rim protector.
Bold prediction, No. 2: Kentucky’s offense settles around a top-30 unit — not top-10 — because Kentucky rarely has the best guard on the floor against the top squads.
Milan Momcilovic commits to Kentucky: Mark Pope salvages his offseason by landing last big transfer available
Matt Norlander
6. Vanderbilt
2025-26 record: 27-9, 11-7 in SEC play.
Postseason: No. 5 seed, lost in the Round of 32
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G TO Barrett, G Chandler Bing, G Ethan Mbako, G Anthony Brown, F Jackson Sheffield, C Jayden Leverett
The scoop: Mark Byington only has two returners from last year’s magical Vanderbilt team, but it’s hard not to have faith in the proof of concept. Oh, and preseason All-American Tyler Tanner is back in the fold. Florida’s Tommy Haugh is tremendous, but Tanner will be my pick to win SEC Player of the Year. The 6-foot guard is one of the best athletes in the league, and his combination of speed, hustle, playmaking and rim pressure is just a headache. Every single coach and player who competes against Tanner just raves about how good he is.
With Tanner back in the fold, Vanderbilt can ask its new faces to do the simple things. They won’t get over-extended because Tanner will spoon-feed ’em easy looks and get the dominoes falling offensively.
Vanderbilt made a shrewd decision to go get bigger this offseason. Its presumed starting lineup will feature 6-foot-8 bowling ball forward Sebastian Williams-Adams, who was one of the best defenders in the SEC as a freshman. He’s going to be awesome in Nashville. Nebraska doesn’t sniff a top-10 defense without 6-foot-11 big man Berke Buyuktuncel, and his passing, rebounding and inside-out versatility will help Vanderbilt a ton on offense, too. Colorado transfer Bangot Dak is the wild card. The highlights are better than the full-game experience, but the mobile 7-footer’s ability to run should be highlighted in Vanderbilt’s up-and-down pace. Byington is also the guard whisperer, so I’m just expecting the Ace Glass III-T.O. Barrett combination to be totally serviceable in a complementary role.
Vanderbilt is going to miss some of its veterans. Tyler Nickel, Duke Miles, AK Okereke and Devin McGlockton were really, really good role players. Vanderbilt has unquestionably sacrificed some shooting for more rebounding and defense. How does that trade-off coalesce? It’d be surprising if Vanderbilt is a top-10 offense again with this personnel, but the defense could be top-20 nationally. That has never happened for Vanderbilt in the internet era, but Byington keeps raising the bar here.
It’s also impossible to bet against the Byington-Tanner braintrust. That’s the best head coach-point guard duo in the league right now.
7. Tennessee
2025-26 record: 25-12, 11-7 in SEC play.
Postseason: No. 6 seed; lost in the Elite Eight
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Christopher Washington, G Tyler Lundblade, F DeWayne Brown II, F Braedan Lue, G Troy Henderson, C Christian Fermin, F Ralph Scott
The scoop: Fascinating social experiment down in Knoxville as Rick Barnes loads up on … offense? An old dog is learning new tricks? Tennessee added five transfers who averaged at least 15 points per game last year. All of those individual numbers are going to tick down in this scheme, and massive sacrifices will have to be made in order for this new-look club to win at a high level, but Tennessee is clearly trying to add more balance to his repertoire.
Some nights it will be a Terrence Hill Jr. night. The VCU transfer has some Ja’Kobi Gillespie-like qualities, where he just finds answers to the test offensively from every area of the floor. He’s a true three-level scorer who doesn’t turn it over.
Some nights it will be a Jalen Haralson night. The big-bodied Notre Dame transfer should be used in bootyball a ton to find and exploit mismatches.
A lot of nights it will be the Juke Harris show. He profiles as a real-deal movement shooter who fits into Tennessee’s flex-action offense so snugly. His rebounding, cutting and defense help him bring value in so many different ways.
Some nights, it may be a Dai Dai Ames or Tyler Lundblade night. Lundblade is the best movement shooter in the portal, and Ames can go get one whenever he wants.
Role allocation will be everything for this group. Who decides to chill out as a scorer to make others better? Haralson seems like the best bet for that, but that unselfish mindset has to translate to everyone here for Tennessee to get the most out of this roster.
The worries about the interior oomph are fair. New 220-pound big man Miles Rubin could get manhandled by some of these SEC brutes. Tennessee will need a big sophomore jump from DeWayne Brown II to combat that physicality. If one of the young four-star wings like Christopher Washington or Ralph Scott emerges, Tennessee could shape-shift its lineups to get really big, really quickly to offset some of the interior questions.
Tennessee is a clear offseason winner and will get a ton of hype, but I don’t think this frontcourt is good enough to be a true National Championship contender.
8. Missouri
2025-26 record: 20-13 overall, 10-8 in SEC play
Postseason: No. 10 seed; lost in the Round of 64
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Kennard Davis, F Toni Bryant, G Jordan Crawford, C Trent Burns, F Luke Northweather, F Aidan Chorister, G Aaron Rowe, F Nicholas Randall, G Cord Stansberry
The scoop: Missouri is a get-off-the-bus team. The Tigers have a host of grown men on this roster, but it’s a freshman who will make-or-break Missouri’s outlook. Five-star recruit Jason Crowe Jr. is going to get a long leash to cook under a Dennis Gates offense that is not afraid to use heavy doses of pick-and-rolls or isolations to let the best player go to work. Shot creation is the name of Crowe’s game. The 6-foot-3 guard is a high-volume, crafty scorer with deep range.
Missouri smartly surrounded Crowe with a ton of huge athletes who should, in theory, be one of the better offensive-rebounding groups in the SEC. Kansas transfer (some say traitor) Bryson Tiller had multiple offensive rebounds in 15 games last year. Tennessee transfer Jaylen Carey is a man amongst boys on the glass, ranking 10th in the country in offensive rebound rate. Providence transfer Jamier Jones was one of the top offensive-rebounding wings in the portal. If 6-foot-10 forward Trent Pierce is starting at the 3-spot, he’s going to be asked to crash the glass, and prized freshman forward Toni Bryant is going to add another jolt of screaming athleticism off the bench.
You can see the vision of a potent offense if Crowe is the halfcourt hub, the offensive rebounding is a staple and all of these Missouri athletes go feast in transition. Jones is an absolute head-hunter in the open floor. The 6-foot-6 wing has vibranium coursing through his veins. UNC lottery pick Caleb Wilson was the only freshman with more dunks than Jones (54) last year. He plays mean in all the best ways. He can use defense, transition, attacking long closeouts and rim pressure to be one of Missouri’s best players in 2026-27.
Missouri has some warts, though. There’s not a ton of secondary creation on this roster, and the spacing could be a bit funky with Jones (low-volume shooter), Carey (non-shooter) and Tiller (27% from 3-point range on 1.5 attempts) on the floor together. Maybe a return home can help BYU transfer Kennard Davis get back to being the best version of himself. Missouri desperately needs him to be an impactful defender and rediscover his offensive confidence. There’s a good 3-and-D role player in here somewhere. Gates also has serious questions about his defensive structure. Missouri can’t be poor again defensively with this many athletes on the roster.
9. LSU
2025-26 record: 15-17 overall, 3-15 in SEC play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
G Yam Madar (if cleared by NCAA)G Abdi Bashir Jr. or RJ Luis Jr. (if the right judge can help him bypass the NCAA’s eligibility rules)Wing Saliou NiangF Brice DessertC Michael Ruzic
Top bench options: F Mo Dioubate, G Divine Ugochukwu, F Marcio Santos, G Austin Nunez
The scoop: Will Wade has theoretically built a good basketball team in his foray back to the Bayou, but there are still some hoops to jump through for LSU to be considered a top-25 club. The status of Israeli point guard Yam Madar is a huge X-Factor. The 25-year-old is one of the best international point guards in this class. He is a well-schooled veteran who is a career 40% 3-point shooter and midrange marksman. Madar has a pathway to eligibility because he had mandatory service in the Israeli military. His agency has been optimistic that he gets cleared, but the NCAA red tape can be a tripwire.
If Madar is cleared, LSU has a EuroLeague All-Star team ready to hoop in the SEC. Italian wing Saliou Niang is a terrific athlete with all the defensive tools to be a menace under Wade. The frontcourt is terrific. Brice Dessert is 23 years old and will be ready for the physicality of SEC basketball. The defense, rebounding, athleticism and touch around the basket will all be assets right away. I expect Dessert to play both frontcourt spots, but LSU can get big in a hurry with Dessert (6-foot-9, 235) paired with 6-foot-10 center Michael Ruzic, who can be a menacing offensive rebounder with feathery touch in the short-roll game or in pick-and-pops.
LSU could be a hellacious rebounding club with some combination of Kentucky transfer Mo Dioiubate, Niang, Dessert and Ruzic on the floor in some capacity.
Wade used the traditional portal to add some shooting in Abdi Bashir Jr., who should be pretty useful for this roster because LSU has enough size, creation and defense to cover up his glaring warts. Michigan State transfer Divine Ugochukwu can play the 1 or the 2 and provide 20ish minutes of serviceable production.
But Madar is the force multiplier who would make this thing hum. LSU will be a top-25 club if Madar can play.
Former Big East Player of the Year RJ Luis Jr. is also committed to LSU, but we’re going to give that as little oxygen as possible. He has a very slim chance at being able to play because he already bypassed the deadline to maintain his college eligibility last spring to enter the 2025 NBA Draft, where he predictably went undrafted. The Charles Bediako precedent looms large here. Bediako was ruled ineligible and that’s the most likely outcome for Luis, too. LSU can (and will) try to find a judge who sees it differently. Obviously, Luis is a ceiling-raiser for the Tigers, but common sense says Luis’ college days are over.
10. Texas A&M
2025-26 record: 22-12 overall, 11-7 in SEC play
Postseason: No. 10 seed; lost in Round of 32
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Jalen Shelley, G Tyshawn Archie, F Jamie Vinson, F Josh Irving, G Lukas Walls, G Jeremiah Green
The scoop: This Aggies roster is more talented than Bucky McMillan’s first go-round. If it clicks into place, Texas A&M has an elite paint-touch guard in PJ Haggerty under a coaching staff that annually ranks near the top of the charts in paint points. It has an elite net-shredding shooter in Bryson Warren from the G-League under a coaching staff that wants to rain fire from downtown. It has two mismatch-hunting forwards in Mackenzie Mgbako and Jalen Shelley. 6-foot-9 Tennessee transfer Cade Phillips is an All-Defensive team candidate if he can get healthy after a shoulder injury. The Aggies have multiple mobile centers in Jamie Vinson and Josh Irving. McMillan has multiple point guards in LSU transfer Jalen Reece and McNeese transfer Tyshawn Archie.
The offensive talent on this roster is just better. Can McMillan get this group to defend at the level he wants? It’s taxing to play Bucky Ball, but the pain of pressing is well worth the reward.
Texas A&M is going to be a factor in this daunting league.
Tier 3: Tournament team
11. Auburn
2025-26 record: 22-16, 7-11 in SEC play.
Postseason: Won the NIT.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Owen Freeman, F Adam Olsen, G George Kimble III, G Simon Walker, G Caleb Williams
The scoop: I’m in on an Auburn bounce-back season. This is a tournament team. Auburn has gotten very old, very quickly this offseason. All five transfers are entering their fourth season of college basketball. The international products — sniper Mantas Rubstavicius and big man Narcisse Ngoy — will be 24 and 22, respectively, when the season tips off. Add in the retention of Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton, and Steven Pearl is poised to have a top-eight rotation of upperclassmen at every single spot.
Pettiford is the engine. This is his team now, and the explosive lefty could make a run at leading the SEC in scoring now that Keyshawn hall is out of the mix. Auburn has a ton of shooting on this roster with Pettiford, Overton, Rubstavicius and South Alabama transfer Adam Olsen. It has also transformed its frontcourt. Ngoy was one of the top international bigs in the past cycle. The 6-foot-11, 245-pounder will be a factor on the glass and as a rim protector. Santa Clara transfer Bukky Oboye adds some freaky tools as a mobile lob threat and shot-blocker. Troy transfer Thomas Dowd is an energizer bunny who strikes all the right tones as an elite connector. Creighton transfer Owen Freeman could be a buy-low candidate as a second-unit bucket-getter who tortures other backup bigs. Very few teams can say they’re bringing a big man who averaged 16 and 7 at a high-major team off the bench. Auburn has that in Freeman.
An awesome lead guard surrounded by a cavalry of bigs and plenty of shooting is a winning recipe.
I expect a more balanced club with less nonsense and no drama on Selection Sunday.
12. Georgia
2025-26 record: 22-11 overall, 10-8 in SEC play.
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Kareem Stagg, F Brady Dunlap, F Andrew Osasuyi, G Kemo Millender, F Hakeem Weems, F Mading Kuany
The scoop: Jeremiah Wilkinson had better counting stats a year ago, but I think Georgia retained its best guard in Blue Cain. The slick 6-foot-5 senior guard is in line for a monster campaign, and Mike White’s ability to retain four starters from a NCAA Tournament team should help keep UGA afloat.
Each of the Dawgs’ top-three transfers fill key holes. Ole Miss transfer big man James Scott will step in and supply rim protection and a lob threat. He’s not quite as physically imposing as Somto Cyril, but he will get the job done. Saint Louis transfer Brady Dunlap provides a jumbo shooter, and Georgia will keep hucking 3s in its new run-and-gun style. Penn State transfer Freddie Dilione V is a handful in the open floor and rated in the 93rd percentile in fastbreak points. He fits right in with what Georgia wants to do.
But the stars of this team will be Cain, Catchings and Millender. Georgia will go as that trio goes all season. Catchings has to eliminate the days of scoring three points one night and 32 the next (this really happened). Cain has to rediscover his jumper to blend with all the excellent winning traits he brings to the table. Smurf needs to just be Smurf again. If that happens, Georgia can make it back to the NCAA Tournament, even if it’s not quite as athletic or vicious on the boards as it was a year ago.
Tier 4: The bubble
13. Oklahoma
2025-26 record: 21-16, 7-11 in SEC play.
Postseason: No. 11 seed; lost in The Crown’s championship game.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Tyler Hendricks, G Quincy Wadley, G Dayton Forsythe, F Kai Rogers, F Yaak Yaak, G/F Gage Mayfield
The scoop: Elite point guard play gives you a chance, and Oklahoma will have that in returning senior Xzayvier Brown, who averaged 15.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.3 steals on excellent efficiency in his first season in the SEC. With Nijel Pack and Tae Davis exiting, Brown is going to have the ball in his hands even more. A First Team, All-SEC season is in the range of potential outcomes for Brown.
Oklahoma has the personnel to be pretty potent with the right developments. Returning wing Derrion Reid is going to be a beast. G-League import Akoldah Gak is an upgrade for this team at center. Oklahoma’s porous interior defense led to its demise last year, but a frontcourt combination of Reid, Khani Rooths and Gak should help that tick up. That’s two 6-foot-8 wings and a 6-foot-11, 24-year-old center who has played a lot of basketball against good competition in the G-League and overseas in Australia. Gak also passes the eye test, offering real appeal as a fluid mover who should be a useful pick-and-roll partner with Brown.
The makeup of this team makes sense if Pop Isaacs can fill some of the Nijel Pack role. Two guards, two big wings, one veteran center with shooters and depth at every position coming off the bench.
Betting on small guards always makes me a little nervous, but I’m cautiously optimistic that Oklahoma’s frontcourt additions will help Porter Moser get back to the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Gak just has to be good.
Tier 5: The basement
14. Mississippi State
2025-26 record: 13-19, 5-13 in SEC play.
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G TJ Simpkins, F Tristan Reed, F Kendyl Sanders, F Tee Bartlett, F Cameren Paul, G Jalyn Collingwood, G Willie Burnett III
The scoop: It was a really, really tiresome season in Starkville, but Chris Jans got back off the mat this spring. Keeping Josh Hubbard for his senior season is a tremendous coup. The portal whispers were alive and well on that front. Hubbard is well on his way to becoming Mississippi State’s all-time leading scorer, and Jans smartly added Kennesaw State transfer RJ Johnson to make Hubbard’s life easier. Johnson is a brute-force, bully-ball guard who can play the point, shifting Hubbard to an off-ball, menacing movement shooter.
Hubbard’s 3s and Johnson’s drives and free throws should be the bedrock of this Mississippi State offense. Paying up to get ND Okafor to flip from Ole Miss should be smart. As long as he can defend without fouling, the big man can be a serviceable SEC difference-maker on both ends. Okafor’s ability to set bouldering screens and put the ball on the deck is a sneaky-big wrinkle that Mississippi State can add to its profile as a counter in the dribble handoff game with Hubbard and Johnson.
Depth is everything in the SEC, and Mississippi State feels a few guys short from being an at-large club. There’s a lot riding on the development of young guys like King Grace or Florida State transfer Thomas Bassong. Seton Hall transfer TJ Simpkins should give this second unit some scoring punch, and freshman big man Tristan Reed — the younger brother of ex-UConn star Tarris Reed — is physically ready to go, but it’s fair to wonder if there’s enough in the cupboard here to sustain the bodyblows of a long regular season in the best league in America.
Mississippi State will be better, but I doubt it’s enough to get over the hump for an at-large bid. This roster is still missing that all-out freaky wing defender who ties everything together.
15. Ole Miss
2025-26 record: 15-20 overall, 4-14 in SEC play
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Dasear Haskins, F Christian Brown, C Stefan Cicic, G Yohance Connor, F Jaron Saulsberry
The scoop: Ole Miss is not overly talented, but this group’s competitive makeup is going to be a breath of fresh air for Chris Beard. New jitterbug point guard Adam ‘Budd’ Clark and Swiss Army knife wing Roman Siulepa, a transfer from Pitt, are both high-motor players at all times. They legitimately rarely take a play off. Clark and Siulepa aren’t overly skilled, but that’s where returners like Patton Pinkins and Ilias Kamardine plan to fit in. Pinkins is a 6-foot-5 deadeye shooter with ball skills. He needs more shots, and Clark’s ability to touch the paint should help. Kamardine came to Ole Miss with a ton of hype and needs to scratch that level if Ole Miss wants to make it back to the Big Dance. Again, I think playing with a real point guard like Clark should help Kamardine, who struggled to create separation in Ole Miss’ isolation-heavy scheme.
But the frontcourt here is limiting. Ole Miss has more questions about its center spot than any other SEC team after Washington State transfer ND Okafor flipped his commitment from Ole Miss to rival Mississippi State. The physical Okafor would’ve been ideal for the Rebels. Now, Beard has to mix Santiago Trouet (a 4-man), Christian Brown (a 4 man) or Stefan Cicic (a 7-footer from Pepperdine who played 12 minutes a game last year).
Ole Miss’ ceiling is limited because of the offensive limitations, and it’s floor could be rather low due the most unproven frontcourt in the league.
Can the compilation of competitive maniacs be the secret sauce why Ole Miss exceeds expectations?
16. South Carolina
2025-26 record: 13-19, 4-14 in SEC play.
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Shane Blakeney, G Marcus Johnson, F Jakub Necas, G Grant Polk, F Hayden Assemian
The scoop: South Carolina had a bit more buying power in this cycle, but so did everybody else. This roster hinges on Lamont Paris getting Kory Mincy and Aleksas Bieliauskas to play like lynchpins. Mincy is a tough, smart, dependable guard who can score or create. Bieliauskas is going to be really, really good in the not-so-distant future. The 6-foot-10 big man is physical and can stretch the floor. The Wisconsin transfer will have an opportunity to grow into a real difference-maker at South Carolina, aka the Wisconsin of the SEC.
Paris also needs some breakouts to happen. Davion Hannah is a buy-low target from Alabama who has plenty of talent but got blanketed by a talented backcourt. Freshman guard Marcus Johnson is expected to be an early contributor.
This roster would be just fine in the ACC or Big East. But it’s undermanned in this league.
