Had the 2026 NCAA Tournament featured a field of 76 like that one that is expected to be adopted for the 2026-27 college basketball season, the bracket would have taken on a significantly different complexion. Eight teams left on the wrong side of the bubble would have made the field, and a handful that did make it would have been subjected to a more treacherous path.
With the First Four — to be known henceforth as the “opening round” — tripling in size from four games to 12, some poorly seeded teams that received byes to the first round in 2026 would have been slotted into preliminary games. Wright State and Kennesaw State would have been among those most significantly impacted. Both were No. 14 seeds in the 2026 NCAA Tournament who opened up against No. 3 seeds.
Under the new format, their already difficult journeys would have been made even more treacherous. For starters, they would have been forced to play in the expanded “opening” round as No. 15 seeds. Then, with a win, they would have advanced to play a No. 2 seed instead of a No. 3 seed.
That’s because the new format is expected to create six games between automatic qualifiers instead of two. As a result, it will now be the 12 worst-seeded teams in the bracket who play on Tuesday/Wednesday of the tournament’s opening week instead of the four worst-seeded. Subsequently, even a couple of teams that historically would have been No. 14 seeds will get roped into the early action.
The expected new format will mean there are now eight No. 16 seeds instead of six and six No. 15 seeds instead of four.
Teams negatively impacted
Wright State and Kennesaw State, as mentioned above, are two examples of teams whose NCAA Tournament fates would have looked drastically different had this past year’s Big Dance been contested under the 76-team format. Others like McNeese and Akron, who were No. 12 seeds as automatic qualifiers, would likely have been pushed down to the No. 13 seed line to make room for eight additional at-large teams.
In essence, a significant number of the automatic qualifiers will now either be slotted into “opening round” games to earn their way into the round of 64 or end up downgraded a seed based on where they would have finished in the hierarchy within the 68-team format.
As you’ll see below, all of the No. 12 seeds in this year’s bracket would likely have been No. 13 seeds in the 76-team format. All of the No. 13 seeds would have been No. 14 seeds. All of the No. 14 seeds would have been pushed down to the No. 15 seed line, and two of them would have been forced into opening round action.
There will now be eight No. 16 seeds, and each of them will be playing in an opening round game for the right to face a No. 1 seed in the first round.
Teams positively impacted
The first four teams on this list would have definitively made the 2026 NCAA Tournament in a 76-team format because the committee revealed them to be the first four teams out of the 68-team field. The following four were up next in CBS Sports Bracketology to fill out the last four of the eight new at-large spots in a hypothetical 76-team field. The records listed are reflective of the team’s record on Selection Sunday 2026.
Teams that would have made the 2026 NCAA Tournament as at-larges in a 76-team format:
69. Oklahoma (19-15, 7-11 SEC)70. Auburn (17-16, 7-11 SEC)71. San Diego State (22-11, 14-6 Mountain West)72. Indiana (18-14, 9-11 Big Ten)73. New Mexico (23-10, 13-7 Mountain West)74. Seton Hall (21-12, 10-10 Big East)75. Virginia Tech (19-13, 8-10 ACC)76. Stanford (20-12, 9-9 ACC)
Looking at the field of 76
In the committee’s actual 1-68 seeding, Miami (Ohio) landed at No. 44 overall, one spot ahead of No. 45 overall seed VCU. For the sake of this exercise, we are assuming the RedHawks would have still slotted in ahead of the Rams since that’s what the real committee did. From there, we slotted the eight additional at-large teams behind VCU since the Rams would likely have been the first team out of the field had they not won the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Here’s a hypothetical glimpse at what the 2026 NCAA Tournament would have looked like under the 76-team format.
On the bubble
Last four in
New MexicoSeton HallVirginia TechStanford
First four out
Oklahoma StateCaliforniaBelmontArizona State
