WNBA: Will A’ja Wilson become the first four-time MVP?

As Beckett Harrison and Eric Nemchock outlined when previewing Coach of the Year and Most Improved candidates, respectively, the criteria for WNBA awards can be fungible and elusive.

That fungibility and elusiveness is all the more heightened for the league’s top individual honor: MVP. Is “value” most clearly conveyed through statistics and production? Do advanced stats, rather than traditional stats, better reveal “value”? How much does team success matter?

There are no easy answers to those questions. And the fact that the WNBA is blessed with many MVP-caliber players makes the answering those questions even more complicated and contested. Here are four players likely to be at the center of such conversations as the 2025 WNBA season unfolds:

A’ja Wilson (Las Vegas Aces)

No, M’VP Four doesn’t quite roll off the tongue like M’VP Three. However, if A’ja Wilson were to win a second-straight and fourth-overall MVP award, I trust Malia Obama and the rest of Wilson’s creative team to come up with another a’mazing ad campaign.

Last year, Wilson became only the second player to be unanimously named the league’s MVP, with the first being the Houston Comets’ Cynthia Cooper in 1997. The only player in W history to win back-to-back MVPs? Cooper, in 1997 and 1998. Wilson can join Coop in accomplishing that feat, along with exceeding her and every other WNBA great by becoming the first four-time MVP. It’s hard to doubt Wilson’s ability to ascend to such illustrious heights, especially as she’ll be debuting a closet’s worth of A’One colorways as she takes the court in the 2025.

Asked at Aces media day about potentially becoming the first four-time MVP, Wilson emphasized improvement over the accolade, saying:

Every year, I try to be better than I was the year before just to give myself a chance in this league. Because the league is getting better. We’re growing. At this point, you just want to maintain your stamina. You want to maintain your mental, all of that, because the season gets hard. I can’t think too much about that just yet, but I’m definitely going to try to be better than I was last year.

Head coach Becky Hammon, however, did not hesitate to raise expectations regarding Wilson, asserting, “What I see is, she went and got better. Which is hard to do when you’re already the best, but it speaks to her work ethic, her desire and her mindset this whole offseason.”

Somewhat contradictorily, the success of the Aces might be what prevents Wilson from winning another MVP. Last season, due to her teammates struggles with injuries and/or down seasons, Wilson had to assume a heavy load, resulting in the most all-round productive season in league history. This year, with a refreshed Chelsea Gray, jacked up Jackie Young and joyful Jewell Loyd, the Aces appear better positioned to support Wilson.

Although she’ll still be one of most unstoppable forces, she might not have to force things like she did last season, and while that should be a good thing for the Aces’ title chances, it might not be as beneficial to Wilson’s MVP candidacy. Yet, Wilson probably would be just fine with a third title—one to match each of her three MVPs.

Napheesa Collier (Minnesota Lynx)

For Unrivaled co-founder Napheesa Collier, winning the 2025 WNBA MVP would serve as quite the statement in favor of the power of the 3×3 league.

It would silence the murmurs of any skeptics, proving that Unrivaled is an ideal venue for players to both build on and expand their games for the WNBA, just as Collier, Unrivaled’s inaugural 1-on-1 Tournament champion and MVP, will have demonstrated. (Although Collier, like Wilson, may prefer a title over an MVP, especially after the Lynx’s loss in the 2024 WNBA Finals and Lunar Owls’ upset in the Unrivaled semifinals.)

Expect Collier to compile another excellent all-round season for a highly-motivated Lynx team that could finish with the league’s best record. Her pinpoint fundamentals will drive an efficient Lynx offense as her enviable versatility will anchor an elite Minnesota defense.

However, even with a career-best season, it’s unlikely that Collier’s traditional stats will approach those that Wilson achieved last season, especially since the Lynx have a more egalitarian offensive system. One way for Collier to enhance her case would be improving her 3-point shooting. Last season, she shot 31 percent from deep on less than three attempts per game. In Unrivaled, she upped her volume, with her percentage rising concomitantly. She took almost four triples per game, making nearly 36 percent. Translating, or better yet further improving upon, those numbers in the W could burnish her MVP credentials.

The Lynx running away with the league’s best record with Collier clearing the field in most advanced statistical categories—a not unlikely scenario—could also result in the realization of MVPhee.

Caitlin Clark (Indiana Fever)

The WNBA MVP has belonged to bigs and wings. The last guard to win the award was Diana Taurasi in 2009. Outside of Taurasi, the aforementioned Cooper is the only guard to have claimed the hardware.

Caitlin Clark is the betting favorite to win the award in 2025, a status that is a testament to her popularity, but also one that foists possibly unrealistic pressure on her. She’s still just a second-year player, and she’ll be running point for a team that features three prominent new additions and a new head coach. While the process of building chemistry and cohesion should not see Clark struggle as much as she did during her rookie season, there could be some ups and downs, which might show up as a torrent of turnovers on Clark’s statistical ledger. And in contrast to Wilson and Collier, Clark is not a two-way player; her MVP case will be all offense and, therefore, her offensive impact must overwhelm that of Wilson and Collier, as well as that of any other candidates that might emerge.

And yet, Clark has proven herself to be a path-breaking player, captivating fans, new and old, for the bold ways in which she has pushed the boundaries of women’s basketball with her audacious 3-point shooting, quick-trigger passing and moment-meeting plays. If there is to be a player who breaks the guard MVP drought, there’s no better candidate than Clark. She could not just lead the league in 3s and assists, but also set new single-season records for both categories, all while steering a surging Indiana squad to the top of the standings.

2025 still seems a bit too early for Clark to claim the league’s top individual award, but it also seems unwise to count her out.

Rhyne Howard (Atlanta Dream)

6-foot-2 with elite handles, three-level scoring, a sure 3-point stroke and dialed-in defensive playmaking.

That sounds like the profile of a WNBA MVP. Can Rhyne Howard put the whole package together and contend for the league’s leading honor? If Wilson and Collier are the favorites and Clark is the upstart, Howard is the dark horse—yet, one capable of galloping away with the award.

For Howard, the consistent application of her outlier abilities has prevented her from firmly cementing herself among the league’s most elite players. It’s evident when she plays with focus, and when she doesn’t. A fully-engaged Howard is almost unstoppable, leveraging the threat of her 3-ball to power her way to the hoop on one end while making things impossible for her defensive assignment on the other end. A less-engaged Howard, in contrast, settles for stagnant, off-the-dribble shots as her defensive impact wanes.

If new head coach Karl Smekso, also a dark horse Coach of the Year candidate, can bring out the best version of Howard on a game-to-game basis, she’ll find herself in the league’s most exclusive conversation. And just as importantly, the Dream, too often an underachiever during Howard’s tenure, likewise will reach the requisite level of team success.