The U.S. Open has a way of commanding the sports world, and this year, with Shinnecock Hills serving as its stage just a couple hours east of Manhattan (traffic permitting!), the buzz feels even louder. Thursday’s opening round shares the spotlight with the Knicks’ championship parade in the city, while the Hamptons’ summer crowd will provide no shortage of star power outside the ropes.
For the next four days, golf will be impossible to ignore. And at the center of it all is a familiar question: Who will hoist the trophy on Sunday?
Usually these conversations are left to the golf junkies, but you don’t need to be a stick — or even have a handicap — to know exactly who the favorite is this week.
Ranked No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking and already a four-time major champion, Scottie Scheffler heads into the week as the clear favorite. He leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained, ball striking, and scoring — just a few of the skills that will be tested at Shinnecock. It’s no wonder his odds to win are +550.
But Scheffler’s appeal extends beyond his status as the game’s most dominant player. He arrives with a chance to accomplish something that only six PGA Tour players have achieved: the career Grand Slam.
2026 U.S. Open odds (top 25 and ties)
Scottie Scheffler (+550)Rory McIlroy (+1100)Jon Rahm (+1200)Cameron Young (+1800)Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)Xander Schauffele (+2000)Bryson DeChambeau (+2200)Ludvig Aberg (+2200)Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)Russell Henley (+3250)Brooks Koepka (+3500)Collin Morikawa (+4000)Justin Rose (+4000)Sam Burns (+4000)Tyrrell Hatton (+4000)Wyndham Clark (+4000)Justin Thomas (+4500)Si Woo Kim (+4500)Viktor Hovland (+4500)Chris Gotterup (+4750)Patrick Cantlay (+5000)Patrick Reed (+5000)J.J. Spaun (+5500)Hideki Matsuyama (+6000)Jordan Spieth (+6000)Robert MacIntyre (+6000)
Just behind Scheffler sits Rory McIlroy (+1200), who completed the career Grand Slam last year with his dramatic playoff victory at the Masters. His most recent U.S. Open appearance produced a respectable top-20 finish at Oakmont, but this week presents a different challenge for the Irishman.
When the U.S. Open last visited the iconic Long Island venue in 2018, McIlroy missed the cut. Eight years later, he returns a different player — and person. This time around, McIlroy is more seasoned, more accomplished and has far less to prove, which, as we’ve seen, may make him even more dangerous.
Next on the board is Jon Rahm (+1400). His second-place finish at the 2026 PGA Championship at Aroninimink served as a reminder that he’s still one of the fiercest competitors in the game. A victory at Shinnecock would mark Rahm’s first PGA Tour victory since leaving for LIV Golf back in 2023.
Rounding out the top four is Xander Schauffele (+1800). With five top-10 finishes already this season, Schauffele enters the week as one of the steadiest contenders in the field. Plus his aggressive playing style and stellar short game could prove to be the perfect formula for navigating Shinnecock’s challenging layout.
