Reinier de Ridder enters Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event, on October 18, as the consensus favorite, but Brendan Allen’s credentials and skill set leave room for value on the underdog line.
The Dutch-born De Ridder, unbeaten in the UFC and riding a five-fight winning streak dating to his ONE Championship days, is expected to lean on his grappling to neutralize Allen’s varied offense. Allen, meanwhile, holds subtle advantages in endurance and recent octagon activity. Here is a detailed look at the betting landscape, fighter matchups, and key factors shaping the lines for this middleweight showdown at Rogers Arena in Vancouver.
Across major sportsbooks, de Ridder’s moneyline has fluctuated between -155 and -185, while Allen’s line ranges from +135 to +143. For those looking to maximize their wagering opportunities, using a Bet365 Bonus Code can add extra value when playing the odds. The consensus favorite probability sits near 62%, while Allen’s odds imply roughly a 42% chance to upset. Line movement toward de Ridder reflects bettors’ confidence in his grappling and undefeated UFC mark, though some value remains on Allen as the underdog.
Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen Odds
At 34 years old, de Ridder stands 6’4″ with a 78″ reach. A southpaw grappler with world-class submission skills, he has finished four of his last five opponents and earned a split-decision over Robert Whittaker in July. De Ridder excels in takedown volume and control, averaging 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his striking accuracy limits damage absorbed.
Allen, age 29, measures 6’2″ with a 75″ reach. He blends grappling with competent boxing, securing five UFC finishes. Allen’s cardio is high considering he fights at a higher pace, making him durable in later rounds. Allen most recently halted Marvin Vettori at UFC 318 and seeks to string together another high-profile win.
Reinier de Ridder presents a clear submission threat against Allen. He has secured four submission victories in his last six outings and is priced around -120 to win by submission on several books. Brendan Allen’s durability and tendency to see fights through to the final bell, however, make a de Ridder decision an appealing option at roughly +200. Bettors who anticipate Allen avoiding early submission attempts may find value in a fight that goes the distance.
“RDR” De Ridder often imposes his grappling early and has finished opponents in opening rounds, but Allen’s resilience past Round 2 cannot be overlooked. For those seeking longer odds, a finish in Round 3 or later offers upside: de Ridder to win in Round 3+ sits near +275, while Allen to finish late is priced around +800. These markets reward patience and an appreciation for the fighters’ contrasting endurance profiles.
Key prop wagers focus on de Ridder’s takedown volume and Allen’s striking output. De Ridder averages 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, making the over 2.5 takedowns market at -150 a strong consideration. On the striking front, Allen’s higher pace suggests he will land more than 50.5 significant strikes, with that over/under line typically set at -110. Bettors can exploit these efficiency metrics even if the main moneyline shifts closer to de Ridder.
De Ridder’s submission chain and control on the mat present the clearest path to victory. Should he secure early takedowns, Allen’s success hinges on scrambles and returning the fight to striking exchanges. Allen’s best road to an upset lies in pressuring the center, mixing strikes with timely level changes, and forcing de Ridder into length exchanges where strikes may deter takedown attempts.
Reinier de Ridder grew up in Breda, Netherlands, beginning judo at age six and earning a black belt in his teens. While pursuing a degree in physical therapy, he added Brazilian jiu-jitsu to his training and achieved black belt status. De Ridder built his early MMA résumé in European regional promotions, compiling stoppage wins before signing with ONE Championship in 2019. In ONE, he captured both the middleweight and light heavyweight titles, becoming the promotion’s third simultaneous two-division champion.
Brendan Allen hails from Louisiana, where he began Brazilian jiu-jitsu at 13 and competed in wrestling and boxing in high school. After winning the 2015 IMMAF amateur middleweight title, he turned pro and twice held the Legacy Fighting Alliance middleweight championship. Allen earned his UFC contract via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019 and established himself as a finisher with submissions and TKO victories.
Since joining the UFC, de Ridder has secured five straight octagon victories. He opened with a third-round arm-triangle choke over Gerald Meerschaert, followed by a first-round rear-naked choke against Kevin Holland. At UFC on ESPN 67 in May 2025, he knee-TKO’d Bo Nickal, earning Performance of the Night honors. Most recently, de Ridder edged former champion Robert Whittaker by split decision in July, reinforcing his top-five ranking.
De Ridder’s line near -170 to -185 accurately reflects his grappling edge and undefeated UFC record. However, Allen’s cardio advantage, recent momentum, and underdog pricing around +140 offer viable betting opportunities. For bettors seeking value, targeting decision markets, alternative exotic props such as late-round finishes, or Allen moneyline before live betting adjustments merits consideration.
In a matchup defined by grappling on one side and pace on the other, the betting market mirrors both fighters’ paths to victory. Expect line shifts as weigh-ins conclude and public backing intensifies, but for now, de Ridder remains the safe play, while Allen stands as the highest-value underdog.
