The New York Knicks’ playoff positioning might not be as safe as it once appeared.
New York’s comfortable No.3-seeded seat has started to wear out since Jalen Brunson went down with an ankle injury on March 6. The Knicks are a blah 21-16 since the turn of the calendar and 4-5 since the Brunson injury after brutal losses to the San Antonio Spurs and Charlotte Hornets to cap a difficult stretch from a travel perspective. New York (44-26) is only three games ahead of the Indiana Pacers with 12 games to go.
The gap between the top two seeds — the Cleveland Cavaliers (56-14) and Boston Celtics (51-19) — and Nos. 3-6 is a little more insurmountable than the gap between Nos. 3-6 and the No. 7 seed. The Nos. 3-6 seeds are in the same tier and have established themselves in this group. Whether or not the Pacers (41-29) can catch the Knicks over the last few weeks of the season, those two teams along with the Detroit Pistons (39-32) and Milwaukee Bucks (40-30) will be playing musical chairs to figure out who plays who in the first round of the NBA playoffs.
As things stand, there is no easy matchup for the Knicks, especially with their play of late and the unknown of when/if Brunson will return to 100 percent. Given how ownership has moved in the past and New York’s front office gutting its assets to add Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns and creating a top-heavy but flawed roster, a first-round exit could make things interesting this summer.
Below, I’m ranking the order of the Knicks’ opponents ahead of the NBA playoffs, from the one they should most want to face to the least.
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Wanting to face a team that has arguably the most dominant player in the NBA sounds absurd, right? Well, New York hasn’t consistently dominated any of the good teams in the Eastern Conference, except for the Bucks.
The teams have one more matchup remaining, but the Knicks beat Milwaukee by 22 points earlier in the season (when the Bucks looked disastrous) and by 34 points in January (when the Bucks had started to find a rhythm).
The Bucks have a top-10 defense, and the Knicks are just 8-15 this season against teams with a top-10 defense. However, they’ve completely obliterated Milwaukee when they’ve faced off.
When at their best offensively, the Knicks have dominated teams with lumbering centers. Brook Lopez has been nearly unplayable in their two matchups. Surely, Bucks coach Doc Rivers will have Giannis Antetokounmpo defend Towns, and Lopez guard Josh Hart — putting a strong, athletic wing on Towns and center on Hart has been the preferred action of good rival teams this season — but the Bucks tried that in January after Towns made Lopez look bad in the first meeting, and New York won by even more.
The Bucks have since added Kyle Kuzma to the fold, and he’s been a welcome addition. But is he enough to make up the gap? I guess we’ll find out in their third regular-season game on March 28. The Bucks are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams in basketball this season, and one of New York’s biggest weaknesses is allowing teams to get hot from deep. So that is something to keep an eye on.
Out of respect for Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, I’ll say the Bucks could win a game, maybe two, and possibly the entire series if Brunson is nowhere near himself or unavailable. Assuming the Knicks are healthy, they could have at least two blowout wins in this series, though. New York’s style of play has already proved too much for Milwaukee.
Josh Hart drives to the basket against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
2. Detroit Pistons
If I didn’t have to factor in the Madison Square Garden atmosphere and its potential impact on a young team playing in the playoffs for the first time, I’d have the Pistons as the team New York would least want to face. That has to be factored in, though.
Detroit seems like the NBA’s team of destiny this season. Going from 14 wins to 40-plus in less than a year is absurd, especially without any big-name additions in the offseason. The Pistons need just one win between now and the end of the regular season to reach 40. If Detroit made a run similar to the 2020-2021 Atlanta Hawks, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Cade Cunningham has been one of the 10 best players in basketball and should make the All-NBA second team, at the very least. Isaiah Stewart is one of the best defensive players in basketball. Ausar Thompson has been in that conversation, too. Malik Beasley might have been the best signing of the offseason when considering his pay and production. Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff has created an identity in Detroit and has this group believing it can win every night, no matter the opponent. Combine that confidence with having a young, athletic team and that’s a dangerous group to face.
I might contradict my first statement because the Pistons are 2-1 against the Knicks, with both wins coming inside MSG. So, maybe the bright lights won’t be too much. Towns didn’t play in the first meeting, but he did in the second one.
Again, the Knicks are 8-15 against top-10 defenses (and three of those wins were against the Orlando Magic, who might have one of the worst modern offenses I’ve ever seen). Not only has Detroit been a top-10 defense all season, but it has also been the No. 2 defense in all of basketball since Jan. 1.
There are two reasons the Pistons could fall short to a healthy Knicks team: turnovers and proven talent.
Detroit turns the ball over a lot, and that could intensify in a playoff setting. One thing you don’t want to let the Knicks do is get easy buckets. A healthy New York team plays at a slow pace, and that’s part of why teams find themselves with a chance to beat the Knicks despite their absurd efficiency when Brunson is playing. As for proven talent, the Pistons have talented players, but they are young. New York has proven talent in its starting lineup, and its players have played in big moments. That’s not nothing.
The Knicks would likely win this series in six or seven games, but they’d all be tough. And again, that is assuming Brunson is at least at 80 percent. I’m not sure the Knicks can win any of these series without Brunson.
3. Indiana Pacers
If this were Detroit’s second go-round in the postseason with this group, I’d have the Pistons and Pacers swap places. However, you can’t ignore that Indiana has been in the postseason already and has had success, even if the Knicks were banged up in last season’s playoffs. I’d assume the Pacers would go into this series with the mental edge.
Indiana has the 10th-ranked offense and 16th-ranked defense this season. Since Jan. 1, Indiana’s offense ranks seventh and its defense ranks 13th, both better than New York. Still, the Knicks are 2-1 against the Pacers. Indiana didn’t have Myles Turner in one of its losses, though, and New York didn’t have OG Anunoby in that game.
The Knicks aren’t the best at defending centers with the ability to space the floor, and Turner is shooting 39 percent from deep on 5.4 attempts per game and is a good rim protector. Indiana doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s, but it shoots the ones it takes at a very good clip.
The thing that makes the Pacers the scariest team for the Knicks in the first round is Indiana’s pace. The Pacers, like the Pistons, are playing fast now and will when the postseason starts. That is who they are. New York has already started to show signs of tiring with a few weeks remaining and isn’t a great team in transition or even defensively when things aren’t set. The Knicks have too many mental lapses against teams that get up and down. Unlike Detroit, Indiana plays fast but doesn’t turn the ball over. The Pacers have the seventh-fewest turnovers per game (13.5) this season, and they’ve been even better since Jan. 1, averaging the third-fewest turnovers per game (12.7).
The Knicks can win this series with a relatively healthy Brunson, likely in six or seven games. However, considering Indiana plays fast, takes care of the ball, and has a good blend of high-end talent and a bench that ranks 11th in the NBA in scoring and sixth in scoring efficiency, it could prove too much for a New York team that isn’t deep or showing signs of slowing with a few weeks left in the regular season.
(Top photo of Myles Turner shooting over Karl-Anthony Towns: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
