Technically, Texas is back.
Steve Sarkisian has stacked back-to-back playoff appearances, cementing national relevance for the Longhorns. But in 2025, the conversation shifts from “are they back?” to “can they stay?” With redshirt sophomore QB Arch Manning as the new face of the program, the hype is real, the headlines are loud, but the schedule? Not easy.
This season feels less like a title march and more like a detour through the construction zone with a young quarterback, key roster turnover and little room for error.
Can Texas get to 11 wins? The market has Texas listed at 10.5 wins with heavy juice to the under at -220. That’s telling in itself. While bettors appear to be focused on the Longhorns’ high ceiling, this team has enough questions that the under still holds value despite the price. The price on Texas to miss the playoffs (+225) 
gives bettors an opportunity to bet against a team that might not be as playoff-ready as the media hype suggests.
A difficult schedule
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The Longhorns benefited from an easier schedule in 2024, playing just two true road games against a ranked opponent, at Vanderbilt and then at Texas A&M. This year, the difficulty ramps up significantly. Texas opens the season in Columbus against the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes, where Manning will make his first career road start.
It’s one thing to get comfortable against UL Monroe or UTEP but it’s another challenge to walk into a packed Horseshoe against the No. 1 defense in the country and perform under pressure. Ohio State has lost just one home opener since 1978. That’s not the setting you want for a new quarterback breaking in a new receiving corps.
Later in the year, Texas travels to Athens to face Georgia, where the Bulldogs are 47-1 at home since 2017. Georgia beat Texas twice last year, including in the SEC Championship, and while the Bulldogs have their own questions, their depth, defensive talent and coaching stability make them one of the toughest opponents in college football. Beating Georgia on the road feels like a long shot.
With two projected losses, ask yourself if you’re confident that Texas can win out the rest of the season.
The Longhorns also travel to Gainesville to face Florida, then Starkville to play Mississippi State, and close the season with Arkansas and Texas A&M, all physical teams that can turn games into a grind. There’s no room for error.
Other issues Texas faces
Lack of cohesion and experience: Manning is a gifted quarterback with pedigree, athleticism and upside, but has only 90 career pass attempts. In limited action last season, he showed flashes of arm talent and mobility but also locked onto primary reads and held the ball too long. His decision-making under pressure hasn’t been tested yet and it will be for sure against Ohio State and Georgia.
Red zone inefficiencies: Texas was 101st in red zone scoring percentage, managing just 44 touchdowns on 69 trips, a hindrance that showed up in critical moments, including the College Football Playoff loss to Ohio State when they failed to score from the one-yard line. That issue feels far-fetched to improve when Manning’s supporting cast is made up of an inexperienced receiving corps with a new offensive line, making early-season growing pains almost inevitable for the offense.
Questions at defensive tackle and in the secondary: Even the defense, which was the backbone of Texas’ 2024 campaign, has its own set of concerns. While Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons are true stars, the defensive tackle rotation is thin and still developing. Texas has leaned heavily on the portal to plug holes inside, but past recruiting cycles failed to establish a steady pipeline at the position.
The secondary also took a hit with the departure of Jahdae Barron, and while there’s talent on the back end, cohesion will take time.
The big picture
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Championships are won with veteran talent, not just raw ability, and Texas is missing that battle-tested foundation. Fading the Longhorns on season-long markets makes sense. Under 10.5 wins at -220 won’t wow anyone with the price, but it looks like a smart bet with two near-certain losses baked in and two or three more surprise upsets on the schedule.
A second, more intriguing option? Texas to miss the College Football Playoff at +225. That gives you room for a 10-2 finish that still falls short, especially in a loaded SEC.
As a Longhorn, I want the fairytale, the 2006 nostalgia. But as a bettor, I see what could actually be more of a transition year disguised in five-star sheen with the Texas fanbase one loss away from panic mode. Saddle up on the under.
If not Texas, then who?
Georgia Bulldogs (+360 to win SEC): Kirby Smart’s program doesn’t rebuild, it reloads. Gunner Stockton takes over at quarterback with a vastly improved receiver corps led by Zachariah Branch, Noah Thomas and Colbie Young, a trio that brings elite speed, playmaking from the slot, towering red-zone targets and physical, vertical threats on the outside. Together, they give Georgia the versatility it lacked last season. This trio not only raises Stockton’s ceiling but also balances the offense, making Georgia far more dangerous through the air in 2025.
On the defensive side, the front line is deep and nasty, and the linebacker group is so deep that DC Glenn Schumann can rotate four or five without and drop-off. In the secondary, KJ Bolden is a budding star, and Daylen Everette brings veteran experience. If Texas stumbles, Georgia is the team built to capitalize. Smart has proven over and over that, even in a transition year, his program doesn’t drop out of contention.
South Carolina Gamecocks (+2200): This team fits the sleeper profile. The Gamecocks finished last season red hot with six straight wins, nearly sneaking into the playoff. QB LaNorris Sellers was electric down the stretch, averaging 342+ rushing/receiving yards per game in November, and now he has a full season with coordinator Mike Shula to take another step forward. The defense lost some key pieces, which makes this a long shot, but Shane Beamer’s team has shown upside and the ability to ride momentum. They aren’t at Texas/Georgia’s level, but they’re the type of team that could crash the SEC title picture if Sellers hits his ceiling.
