A nightmare CFP scenario exists for ACC

A nightmarish — and frankly, embarrassing — scenario could potentially unfold for the Atlantic Coast Conference regarding this season’s 12-team College Football Playoff. Specifically, it’s possible that the ACC could be omitted from the CFP entirely, which would be devastating for the power conference.

The CFP’s format for this season features the four highest-rated teams in the College Football Playoff top 25 receiving first-round byes, while the five highest-ranked conference champions are ensured a spot in the 12-team field.

No particular league, including the ACC and other power conferences, is guaranteed a CFP bid, however. So if Duke, for example, wins the ACC but isn’t one of the five highest-rated conference champs, the ACC could be on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff.

Here’s how the ACC is left out of the CFP

The Blue Devils are 5-4 overall and 4-1 in league competition. Left on their regular-season docket are home battles with No. 19 Virginia and Wake Forest, along with a road duel against North Carolina.

If Duke wins out, it is likely headed to the ACC championship game next month in Charlotte, N.C. Sure, we have to see how the next three weeks play out, but ESPN’s Football Power Index (“FPI”) gives the Blue Devils the second-best shot to win the ACC, trailing only Georgia Tech.

There are seven teams with a chance to claim the league’s crown. Yet suppose Duke captures the ACC title with an overall record of 9-4. In that case, it’s possible that two Group of Five champs could get into the CFP over the Blue Devils, along with champions of the Southeastern Conference, the Big Ten Conference and the Big 12 Conference.

Also, keep an eye on SMU. The Mustangs sit at 7-3 overall and 5-1 in the ACC. Should SMU win the conference title with three, or potentially four, overall losses, it’s feasible that a second Group of Five champion could be higher in the CFP top 25 than the Mustangs.

From the Group of Five, the most realistic scenarios to overtake the ACC in the CFP rankings would be the winner of the American Conference, as well as a one-loss James Madison out of the Sun Belt Conference.

Miami, meanwhile, is the highest-ranked ACC team in the CFP top 25, at No. 15. The Hurricanes, though, have a better shot (13.3 percent) at making the College Football Playoff than they do of winning the ACC (3.6 percent), since they already have two conference setbacks.