Arch Manning’s 2025 expectations and NFL draft outlook

Arch Manning needs no introduction to the college football world. From the moment the sophomore quarterback committed to Texas in the class of 2023, the grandson of Archie Manning and nephew of Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning and two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning has been in the public eye.

After a redshirt season in 2023 and serving as a changeup to Quinn Ewers last season, Arch Manning will get his opportunity to be the face of the Longhorns — and potentially college football. He won’t get the chance to ease into the starting role, as top-ranked Texas will play at defending national champion and No. 3-ranked Ohio State in its season opener on Aug. 30.

As Manning readies for the 2025 season, we had our NFL draft and college football experts dive into all things Arch. Heather Dinich looked at how Manning could change Texas’ offense this season, and Adam Rittenberg talked to opposing coaches to get their initial impressions. Jordan Reid broke down Manning’s game from a scouting perspective, and Matt Miller talked to NFL evaluators about what stands out about the young QB and when he could enter the draft.

Let’s begin with Reid’s breakdown of what Manning has put on film to date.

Jump to a section:Scouting report | Texas’ offenseOpposing coach perspectiveNFL scouts talk Arch

What does Manning look like from a scouting perspective? What stands out most, and what does he need to work on?

Two starts and 95 career passing attempts provide too small a sample size to assess any signal-caller, but the early returns on Manning are positive. He has immense potential, but his starts came against 2-10 Mississippi State and 5-7 Louisiana Monroe. At 6-foot-4, 222 pounds, Manning has prototypical size and a well-built frame. He finished last season with 939 passing yards, nine touchdown passes and two interceptions over 10 games, and he has picture-perfect mechanics. He throws from a strong platform and seems to always play on balance from the pocket.

Manning also has a quick, over-the-top delivery that helps him get the ball out effectively. He has the necessary arm strength and confidence to drive the ball into tight windows, but one of the more impressive parts of his film was his success as a downfield thrower. He averaged 10.0 air yards per attempt last season, and 15 of his 61 completions went for 20-plus yards.

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Manning finished last season with seven completions on throws of 20-plus air yards, and three of his nine touchdowns came on downfield passes, which was an element mostly missing from Texas’ offense when Ewers was quarterback. Manning will help the offense generate more explosive plays downfield because of his touch, arm strength and comfort on deep-shot plays.

Unlike his uncles, Manning can also turn into a reliable running threat on designed QB runs or when plays break down. His frame and mobility allow him to string together positive plays outside the framework of concepts.

But Manning needs refinement on true multistep progressions from the pocket. He has a habit of sticking to his primary read too long, so he must learn when and how to move on to his next options quickly. Too many times last season, he stared down his first read, hoping the receiver would get open.

Manning can also improve on using his mobility to his advantage. His internal clock in the pocket was inconsistent. During several plays, he could have hurt defenses even more as a running threat instead of hanging in the pocket too long. — Reid

How will Texas utilize Manning, and how will things look different with him instead of Ewers?

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told ESPN that his offensive system won’t change, but it has evolved with the strengths of different quarterbacks — just as it did when Sarkisian was the offensive coordinator at Alabama and transitioned from Tua Tagovailoa to Mac Jones late in the 2019 season.

“The beauty of it for us right now is we have two years with Arch of working with him every day and have a really good understanding of the things that he’s good at, and so we can focus and tailor things around what he does well,” Sarkisian said.

“Probably the most natural thing is his athleticism to where he’s a threat. When he runs the ball, you have to account for him because there’s a speed component to the way he runs, and there’s a physical component to the way he runs. And so some of the things that we’re able to do in short yardage may be a little bit different than where we’ve been in the past.”

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Sarkisian said that the Longhorns have added the quarterback run in short-yardage, third-down situations and in the red zone — while also allowing Manning to recognize his strengths.

The Longhorns were middle of the pack in the red zone last season, as their 63.8% touchdown percentage ranked 55th in the FBS. Texas was 49th in third-down conversion percentage (42.1%). Manning could boost both categories. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry last season (25 carries for 108 yards and four touchdowns), a marked improvement over Ewers’ minus-1.4 yards per carry in 2024 (57 carries for minus-82 yards and two touchdowns).

“We may not change so much, but his ability to use his legs on third down in the red area to create plays when people are in man coverage and people are blitzing and there’s voids to go run, I think would be another component to that as well,” Sarkisian said. — Dinich

What do opposing college coaches think of Manning, both good and bad?

Most opposing coaches have a better sense of Manning off the field than on it, but they like what they’ve seen.

“He’s getting a lot of publicity, but he seems like a pretty level-headed kid,” a coach who will face Manning this fall said. “It doesn’t seem like he bought into the hype.”

An SEC coach added: “You’ve got a ton of respect for the kid, handling what is an insane situation.”

However, Manning’s limited game experience (11 career games, including 10 in 2024) creates doubt about whether he can reach the elevated expectations he’s facing as a first-year starter.

“He’s going to be a good player,” another SEC coach said. “The hype that it’s been, it’s impossible to reach.”

Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby, who faced Manning in his only conference start last season, thought the quarterback’s command and composure stood out. Manning completed 26 of 31 passes for 325 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while adding a rushing touchdown, in a 35-13 Texas win.

“You’ve got to find ways to get him off platform,” Lebby told ESPN. “For a guy who hadn’t played a ton up to that point inside that game, man, he was really, really calm. He had great demeanor, and he had command of what Sark and his staff was trying to accomplish.”

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Arch Manning dazzles with 5-TD performance vs. UTSA

Arch Manning replaces the injured Quinn Ewers and tallies five total touchdowns in Texas’ win vs. UTSA.

Several coaches who studied Manning noted his athleticism, which showed on a 67-yard run against UTSA and runs of 26 and 21 yards against Mississippi State and Georgia, respectively. Texas used Manning primarily as a running threat when Ewers returned from injury.

“Any time a quarterback can make all the throws and has enough ability to run the ball, they’re usually pretty f—ing good,” an SEC defensive coordinator said. “But I’m sure he’ll force some stuff and make some mistakes.”

Manning’s run threat certainly will be part of his repertoire, but how much? Coaches say a lot depends on Texas’ confidence in projected backup Trey Owens, who had only four pass attempts last season, because the more Manning runs, the more he opens himself up to injury.

“Sometimes, that comes into play, what your backup’s like,” a coach who faced Texas last season said. “I don’t imagine there will be a lot of designed runs. It will be Arch doing it on his own.” — Rittenberg

What do NFL scouts and evaluators think of Manning, and what are they looking to see from him this season?

Based on conversations I had with scouts, Manning is arguably the nation’s most discussed player. I spoke to 20 evaluators, and each was excited to talk about Manning. But not one evaluator polled is sure when they’ll scout the third-generation star as an active NFL draft prospect.

As a redshirt sophomore, Manning is draft eligible for the 2026 draft but also has three years of college eligibility remaining. No one I talked to thinks he’ll use all three years, but scouts aren’t ready to commit to him as a 2026 prospect, either. Grandfather Archie Manning, who has been more hands-on than Arch’s famous uncles, told Texas Monthly that he doesn’t expect Arch to enter the 2026 draft. But scouts are doing the legwork just in case.

“We’re evaluating him, while at the same time knowing he probably goes back to school [for the 2026 season],” an AFC scouting director said.

NFL scouts typically say 25 collegiate starts is the minimum any incoming quarterback should have before entering the draft. Manning has only two. A long playoff run this season could get him to 18 starts. But if the family agrees that more starts are better in the long run — Peyton started 45 games in college, and Eli had 41 — then it’s unlikely Arch will have a one-and-done starting season.

“People in the league want him to come out. Fans want him to come out. But I really feel like he’s in no rush, given his support system,” an NFC West scout added. “The family is going to care where he goes and who has the first pick when he does enter the draft.”

That sentiment was echoed by other scouts, and there’s precedent. The Manning family determined Eli’s landing spot in 2004, as Archie and Eli told the San Diego Chargers not to draft him coming out of Ole Miss. The Chargers picked Eli but traded him to the New York Giants, his preferred destination.

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“The situation is going to matter,” an NFL general manager said. “With NIL money and his family situation, there is no rush to get to the league. So, they’ll wait and see what the environment is before making a decision.”

One NFC scouting director predicted that the Manning decision would come close to the mid-January deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft. “They’ll want to see which team has the No. 1 pick and if they’ve fired their coach — which is pretty common — [and] who the replacement is before jumping into the draft,” the scouting director said.

Would Manning and the family consider an earlier entry into the 2026 draft if a team with the right appeal, be it an emotional tie to an organization or the right football fit, were in position to draft him? Potentially, but after conversations with scouts, this is an unknown.

Online speculation that the Manning family wants him to land with the New Orleans Saints, where his grandfather played, or maybe the New York Giants to follow uncle Eli, has been rampant. But one thing is for certain — Arch will go his own way. He didn’t go to Tennessee or Ole Miss and try to live in the family legacy. Overconnecting the dots between where his uncles played hasn’t been a smart bet.

If he enters next year’s draft, Manning wouldn’t be the guaranteed No. 1 pick. Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Drew Allar (Penn State), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) are also receiving first-round attention.

Manning is the most hyped quarterback coming out of high school since Trevor Lawrence, but arguably under more pressure and with more attention.

“We’re still talking about a guy who has two starts, right?” an AFC South area scout said when asked to break down Manning’s game. “He’s big, he has a strong arm and I love the flexibility in his throwing motion. And he can move much better than his uncles ever did. But he’s very raw, and last year, the game was way too fast for him when he got in against Georgia and looked overwhelmed.”

Manning was a fish out of water too often when thrust into action last year. On film, there were a lot of “one-read-and-go” situations when he would take off as a runner if the fast-throwing option wasn’t there, which was referenced by several scouts. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian will develop his eyes and his pocket patience, but that’s the jump scouts need to see this season for him to live up to the generational quarterback label. — Miller