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ESPN Model Predicts College Football's No. 1 Offense

May 8, 2025
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Meet The Wife Of Kirk Herbstreit (1:13)

The 2025 college football regular season is right around the corner.

Spring semester has wrapped up, summer is nearly here and before you know it, teams will be reporting to fall camp. Week 1 is just a couple of months away now.

The 2024 college football season featured the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Ohio State, which went 10-2 in the regular season, took home the championship. The Buckeyes took down Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame en route to a national championship – Ryan Day’s first.

Who will be holding up the trophy at the end of the 2025 season?

INGLEWOOD, CA – OCTOBER 24: ESPN analyst Kirk Edward Herbstreit during the Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams on October 24, 2024, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

An ESPN projection model, the SP+, uses three main factors to project its rankings for the 2025 season:

Returning productionRecent recruitingRecent history

“Using a chunk of information from previous seasons gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This factor accounts for a little more than 20% of the projection, and it focuses only on what happened within the past three seasons. I used to use a weighted history stretching back five years, but that’s a less effective approach now with the changes in the sport,” ESPN says.

Who will have the country’s No. 1 offense in 2025?

ESPN is going with a surprise pick: Miami.

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 27: Miami Hurricanes Head Coach Mario Cristobal celebrates after winning the game against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Hard Rock Stadium on September 27, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Pimentel/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

Michael Pimentel/ISI Photos/Getty Images

ESPN’s model has Miami, led by transfer quarterback Carson Beck, with the No. 1 offense in the country in 2025.

The Hurricanes are projected to have the country’s No. 49 defense, but No. 1 overall offense. Beck, who reportedly landed a $4 million deal to transfer to The U, will look to lead the country’s top offense.

You can view the full rankings here.



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Tags: collegeESPNFootball039smodeloffensePredicts
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