Five dark-horse candidates for 2025 College Football Playoff

With spring practices and transfer portal activity winding down, it’s a perfect time to forecast the 2025 college football season.

Even though a 16-team College Football Playoff seems inevitable, we are stuck with 12 teams, at least for the 2025 season.

The 2025-26 college football national championship favorites are easy to identify. Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Clemson, Oregon and Notre Dame are the most believed to contend.

The national champion will likely come from that group. Yet, in the initial 2024 College Football Playoff, surprises like Indiana, Arizona State and SMU qualified.

No one predicted those teams to make it that far. With that in mind, here are five teams that could shock everyone in 2025.

Illinois 

The Fighting Illini won 10 games in 2024 and capped off their impressive campaign with a Citrus Bowl win. With quarterback Luke Altmyer back, Illinois could be the next Indiana.

Like Indiana last year, the schedule is favorable. USC and Ohio State are the most difficult games, but both matchups are at home. 

Illinois leads the Big Ten with 16 starters. 

Nebraska 

Nebraska was expected to take a leap in 2024 — that didn’t happen. However, its 7-6 finish was a step in the right direction.

Temple and Baylor had significant win increases during head coach Matt Rhule’s third season. With Dylan Raiola back as the starting quarterback, plus an experienced offensive line and a dynamic receiver room, it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Nebraska challenge for a playoff spot.

The schedule isn’t bad, either. Road games against Penn State, Maryland and UCLA will be challenging. There are also home games against Michigan, USC and Iowa, but each game is winnable.  

Texas A&M

The Aggies’ defense was playoff-caliber last season, but the offense was average, ranking 50th in points scored. 

Dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed is back. He accounted for 23 total touchdowns and completed 61.3 percent of his passes.

Additionally, A&M upgraded its wide receivers room via the transfer portal. The dynamic running back Rueben Owens will return, too.

Although there are some key pieces to replace on defense, second-year head coach Mike Elko specializes in that side of the ball. If the offense improves as expected, A&M could be a top-10 team. 

UNLV 

The Running Rebels lost in the Mountain West title game in 2024. Since then, there has been a bunch of turnover, but UNLV hired former Mississippi State and Florida head coach Dan Mullen. 

Anthony Colandrea transferred from Virginia to play quarterback, along with Alex Orji, the former Michigan signal-caller.

Colandrea has 26 career touchdown passes, over 500 rushing yards and 20 interceptions.

If Mullen can get the best out of him and Orji, an elite runner if used correctly, the Rebels could have a dynamic offense.

The race for the Group of Six playoff spot is wide open.

Oklahoma 

The Sooners’ roster is solid. Oklahoma landed quarterback John Mateer, one of the top players available in the transfer portal from Washington State.

Running back transfer Jayden Ott (Cal), among the best RBs in the portal, was added as well, so the OU offense should be much improved after ranking 97th in points per game. 

The schedule won’t be easy. Yet, if the defense doesn’t take a step back — and it shouldn’t under head coach Brent Venables — the Sooners will have true playoff potential.