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Has ESPN’s Paul Finebaum lowered expectations for Arch Manning, Texas in 2026?

May 18, 2026
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Few were as bullish on the Texas Longhorns in 2025 as longtime ESPN college football commentator Paul Finebaum. Has he changed his stance after the team failed to meet his expectations last season?

Before the 2025 season, Finebaum said Texas’ Arch Manning would be the best college quarterback since former Florida Gators star Tim Tebow—the 2007 Heisman winner—putting the Longhorns in position to win a national championship. That take aged poorly. 

Manning failed to lead the Longhorns to the College Football Playoff in his first season as a full-time starter, going 10-3. Finebaum, though, hasn’t changed his opinion of the highly touted QB or Texas.

Paul Finebaum discusses high expectations for Longhorns

“[I’m] pretty fascinated by Texas and Arch Manning, and I know I’ve gone to the high-hanging fruit there, but a year ago, they were certainly put in a position they weren’t ready for,” Finebaum told “McElroy and Cubelic” of WJOX-FM in Birmingham, Ala., on Monday. “You often see this in other sports where a guy has the lead at Augusta and the PGA in the final round, and he shoots 78. He comes back the next year in the exact same place and wins. And I feel like Texas is in that spot. Their schedule is really daunting, but I’m curious what [head coach] Steve Sarkisian has to say, because there’s a little bit of chirping out there about him, and I don’t think it’s justified.”

Sarkisian has led Texas to two CFP appearances in five seasons but hasn’t won a national title. He’ll continue to be labeled someone who can’t win the big one until he does, much like golfer Rory McIlroy was, until he won his Masters in April 2025. 

“He’s still been to the playoffs twice. Last year was not a disaster, in spite of the opening loss [to the Ohio State Buckeyes] and then the Florida loss, but I think they have the capacity to win the national championship,” Finebaum said. “I just want to know what is different, and I’m sure we’ll hear a lot about [new defensive coordinator] Will Muschamp. I’m sure we will hear a lot about [new wide receiver] Cam Coleman, [new running back] Hollywood Smothers, a lot of names that are going to make them a little better, a much better team, I should say.”

The additions of Coleman (708 receiving yards in 12 games with the Auburn Tigers in 2025) and Smothers (939 yards in 11 games for the North Carolina State Wolfpack in 2025) make Texas much deeper at skill positions, solving one of the team’s biggest problems in 2025. The lack of quality WRs and RBs was one reason the Longhorns ranked ninth in the SEC in yards per game (388.5) last season. 

Manning must become a more precise passer to maximize his new weapons. Last season, he ranked 13th among 15 eligible SEC QBs in completion percentage (61.4 percent). 

The pressure is on for the Longhorns (one of the most expensive tickets in college football) heading into the 2026 season, but Manning and Co. may look like the team they were supposed to be in 2025. Perhaps Finebaum can say he was just a year early to the party if the Longhorns win the title. 



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