How much pressure is USC HC Lincoln Riley under?

Will the upcoming 2025 season prove a make-or-break year for USC head coach Lincoln Riley?

It’s a tricky question to answer. On the one hand, after a solid first season at the helm of the Trojans, Riley’s team has performed at a sub-par level the past two years, During that time, he’s gone a combined 15-11, albeit with two straight bowl-game wins.

On the other hand, as ESPN senior writer Heather Dinich noted this week on the “Get Up” show, Riley has a “lengthy contract and a huge buyout.”

So even if he underperforms yet again in 2025, it might be difficult to justify a potential firing of Riley. For that reason, Dinich and other national experts don’t necessarily think Riley is firmly on the hot seat in 2025.

But Dinich did say of Riley: “He knows, because of where he is, he’s under tremendous pressure.”

In early July, CBS Sports issued its hot-seat rankings for all FBS head coaches for the upcoming season. Riley falls into the “pressure is mounting” category.

Throughout the course of college football history, USC has been one of the biggest brands in the sport. Winning seven or eight games in a season won’t cut it. Sure, the Trojans are in the loaded Big Ten Conference, where Michigan and Ohio State have claimed the past two national titles.

What’s more, Oregon is a juggernaut that spent much of the 2024 campaign at No. 1 in the major polls. Penn State reached last season’s semifinal round of the College Football Playoff, and the Nittany Lions are a major contender to go deep in the CFP this coming season.

In the preseason coaches top-25 poll released at the beginning of the week, USC arrived in the “others receiving votes” category (No. 4 overall there). Six Big Ten teams, meanwhile, reside in the top 25.

The Trojans’ 2025 schedule is stacked, with road dates to Illinois, Nebraska and Oregon. At home, USC will host Michigan, Iowa and cross-town rival UCLA. In the non-conference slate, the Trojans will head to long-time rival Notre Dame, the national runner-up a season ago.

Last month, when the Big Ten unveiled its annual preseason media poll, USC checked in at No. 9 overall. USC fans, boosters and others won’t be happy if their program finishes 2025 as a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Ten.

There are reasons for cautious optimism, though, at USC. For one, in 2024, the Trojans lost five Big Ten contests by seven points or fewer, as Dinich pointed out.

USC had a top-15 recruiting class in 2025. In 2026, so far, its recruiting cycle is No. 1 nationwide, according to Rivals.

Dinich summed it up by saying that Riley “told me this summer that he feels they are right on the doorstep.”