Theo Robertson's Expert Men's NCAA Tournament Picks

Former Cal standout/assistant coach and NBA assistant coach Theo Robertson breaks down the 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament and shares which teams are poised for a deep run.

The best thing about the NCAA Tournament isn’t just the matchups or the upsets – it’s the competition and the pressure.

March has a way of revealing exactly who you are. Whatever you have inside of you – your confidence, doubts, toughness, even weaknesses – the tournament will bring it all to the surface.

It’s an unforgiving stage that rewards those who embrace the moment and exposes those who hesitate.

You either rise to the challenge, or you watch someone else’s shining moment.

I felt that firsthand when I played in the NCAA Tournament with the Cal Golden Bears. The intensity is different. The margin for error is razor thin.

I remember stepping on the floor knowing everything we’d worked for came down to 40 minutes. There’s no next game guaranteed, no time to ease into the moment – you either compete at your highest level, or you go home.

That’s what makes this time of year so special. Every game is a proving ground. Some players will make a name for themselves overnight, their legacies forever tied to one shot, one run, one performance under the brightest lights. It’s not just about talent – it’s about who’s built for the madness.

MORE ON OPTA ANALYST

And here’s your chance to show your mettle. If you want to try something a little different with your bracket this year, join the Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket, where your nailing of upset picks is rewarded particularly.

Under the rules, our supercomputer runs simulations of the 2025 NCAA Tournament to determine how likely it is that a particular team will reach a particular round. We’re doing this for the men’s and women’s tournaments. If you pick a team that has a 70% chance of advancing past the first round and that team wins, you’ll receive 30 points (100% minus the percentage chance your selection will advance). If it has a 45% chance of advancing past the second round to the Sweet 16 and again advances, you’ll get 55 points. If it has a 20% chance of reaching the Elite Eight and you get that pick right, you’ll get 80 points.

Following are my contest submissions. We’re all going to see the bracket differently.

East Region

Duke is the headliner, No. 1 in Opta Analyst’s TRACR rankings entering the tournament and with a favorable path to the Final Four.

Mississippi State over Baylor is a classic toss-up, but the Bulldogs’ toughness will help them earn their first NCAA Tournament win since 2008… with their prize being a shot at the Blue Devils in the second round.

The biggest question mark in the region is Alabama. With Grant Nelson injured in the SEC tournament, will the Crimson Tide be healthy enough to make a deep run?

In the end, Duke has the talent to come out of the East. The Blue Devils have one of the younger teams in the 68-team field, and they’ll need to be special to cut down the nets in San Antonio.

First Round (With Predictor Bracket Examples)

No. 1 Duke over No. 16 American (Duke has a 96% win probability, so a correct pick would be worth 4 points)No. 8 Mississippi State over No. 9 BaylorNo. 5 Oregon over No. 12 LibertyNo. 4 Arizona over No. 13 AkronNo. 6 BYU over No. 11 VCUNo. 3 Wisconsin over No. 14 MontanaNo. 10 Vanderbilt over No. 7 Saint Mary’s (Vandy has a 43% win probability, so a correct pick would be worth 57 points)No. 2 Alabama over No. 15 Robert Morris

Second Round

No. 1 Duke over No. 8 Mississippi StateNo. 4 Arizona over No. 5 OregonNo. 3 Wisconsin over No. 6 BYUNo. 2 Alabama over No. 10 Vanderbilt

Sweet 16

No. 1 Duke over No. 4 ArizonaNo. 2 Alabama over No. 3 Wisconsin

Elite Eight

No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Alabama

West Region

The wild, wild West Region has “bracket buster” written all over it.

A first-round exit for two-time defending champion UConn? That wouldn’t be shocking. Jeremiah Fears and Oklahoma will test the Huskies’ ability to guard at the point of attack.

Texas Tech plays the kind of gritty, defensive-minded basketball that can lead to a deep run.

The biggest question mark in the region is St John’s. When coach Rick Pitino’s team is clicking, it can beat anyone. But consistency has been an issue.

Ultimately, Florida is the SEC tournament champion and a No. 1 seed for a reason. The Gators’ combination of size, experience and depth makes them the safest pick to win the West.

First Round

No. 1 Florida over No. 16 Norfolk StateNo. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 UConn (Oklahoma has a 45% win probability, so a correct pick would be worth 55 points)No. 5 Memphis over No. 12 Colorado StateNo. 4 Maryland over No. 13 Grand CanyonNo. 11 Drake over No. 6 MissouriNo. 3 Texas Tech over No. 14 UNC WilmingtonNo. 7 Kansas over No. 10 Arkansas (Kansas has a 58% win probability, so a correct pick would be worth 42 points)No. 2 St. John’s over No. 15 Omaha

Second Round

No. 1 Florida over No. 9 OklahomaNo. 4 Maryland over No. 12 Colorado StateNo. 3 Texas Tech over No. 11 DrakeNo. 2 St. John’s over No. 7 Kansas

Sweet 16

No. 1 Florida over No. 4 MarylandNo. 3 Texas Tech over No. 2 St. John’s

Elite Eight

No. 1 Florida over No. 3 Texas Tech

South Region

This region is stacked with teams capable of making a run.

Michigan has the talent to shake things up, while Iowa State is a dark horse that has the defensive toughness to make a push.

Auburn might be the No. 1 seed, but the Tigers are limping into the Big Dance – going 1-3 in their last four games after a 27-2 start. Bruce Pearl’s squad is certainly talented enough to be the last team standing, but they have to get right in a hurry.

In the end, Michigan State has the coaching, experience and tournament toughness to grind through this region. If the Spartans hope to reach the Final Four, they’ll need Jase Richardson to play as well as his dad (Jason) did for the 2000 national title team.

First Round

No. 1 Auburn over No. 16 Alabama StateNo. 8 Louisville over No. 9 CreightonNo. 5 Michigan over No. 12 UC San DiegoNo. 4 Texas A&M over No. 13 Yale (Texas A&M has a 70% win probability, so a correct pick would be worth 30 points)No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 11 North CarolinaNo. 3 Iowa State over No. 14 LipscombNo. 7 Marquette over No. 10 New MexicoNo. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 Bryant

Second Round

No. 1 Auburn over No. 8 LouisvilleNo. 5 Michigan over No. 4 Texas A&MNo. 3 Iowa State over No. 6 Ole MissNo. 2 Michigan State over No. 7 Marquette

Sweet 16

No. 1 Auburn over No. 5 MichiganNo. 2 Michigan State over No. 3 Iowa State

Elite Eight

No. 2 Michigan State over No. 1 Auburn

Midwest Region

The Midwest has great potential for chaos.

Texas over Illinois is a strong upset pick, with the Longhorns’ athleticism creating matchup problems.

Kentucky is a high-variance team: If the Wildcats get hot from 3, they’re a threat to make a deep run, especially with the return of Lamont Butler.

Houston sits atop the region and is built to grind out wins, but it just might be Tennessee’s time. Rick Barnes has the Vols playing elite defense and they’re confident they can go blow for blow with anybody.

First Round

No. 1 Houston over No. 16 SIU-EdwardsvilleNo. 8 Gonzaga over No. 9 GeorgiaNo. 5 Clemson over No. 12 McNeese StateNo. 4 Purdue over No. 13 High PointNo. 11 Texas/Xavier over No. 6 Illinois (the play-in game winner has a 39% win probability, so a correct pick would be worth 61 points)No. 3 Kentucky over No. 14 TroyNo. 7 UCLA over No. 10 Utah StateNo. 2 Tennessee over No. 15 Wofford