Oklahoma hasn’t been Oklahoma for years.
The once perennial college football contender has fallen on hard times recently, but the storied program’s fortune could begin turning on Saturday night.
In the lone game between two Associated Press top 25 teams this weekend, No. 18 Oklahoma (1-0) hosts No. 15 Michigan (1-0) in a major out-of-conference showdown.
Week 2 winner could set the tone for rest of 2025 season
Both teams are coming off of Week 1 wins and have reason for optimism this season, particularly at quarterback.
Michigan true freshman Bryce Underwood completed 67.7 percent of his pass attempts for 251 yards (8.1 yards per attempt) and one touchdown in a 34-17 win against New Mexico.
Oklahoma transfer John Mateer set a program record for most passing yards in a player’s debut, finishing a 35-3 win over FCS Illinois State with 397 yards and four total touchdowns.
He followed his former Washington State Cougars offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, to Norman, and the familiarity bore immediate fruit.
Facing Michigan is a massive step up in competition from Illinois State, but by no means is it insurmountable. Oddsmakers currently list Oklahoma as a 5.5-point favorite, and ESPN Analytics gives the Sooners a 53.5 percent chance of winning.
A win would be huge for head coach Brent Venables, in his fourth season as Oklahoma head coach. The Sooners are 23-17 under Venables, with two losing records (not to mention an 0-3 record in bowl games) in his first three seasons.
Oklahoma has a formidable second-half schedule. If it can even manage a split in its six ranked games against SEC opponents, Oklahoma could have a viable argument for a College Football Playoff auto-bid with a win over Michigan in its back pocket.
From Oct. 11 through the end of the regular season, Oklahoma plays six currently-ranked SEC teams, beginning with No. 7 Texas (0-1) in the Red River Rivalry, followed by road trips to No. 10 South Carolina (1-0), No. 22 Tennessee (1-0) and No. 21 Alabama (0-1), plus home games against No. 20 Ole Miss (1-0) and No. 3 LSU (1-0).
Let’s say the Sooners split those games and end the regular season 9-3. They might finish with a worse record than other power conference teams vying for an at-large CFP berth, but with a dominant win over Michigan, they’ll have a shred of evidence that they’re better than their power conference peers with more wins.
For more than two decades, from 2000-21, Oklahoma was one of college football’s premier programs. It produced 18 10-win seasons and the most wins (239) by an FBS program during that span. (h/t Stathead)
But ever since former head coach Lincoln Riley left for USC, the Sooners have been mediocre.
With expectations soaring following Mateer’s excellent debut, the program might have a quarterback capable of willing it back to relevancy.
With a win on Saturday, Oklahoma might finally start to resemble itself.
