After the latest round of Premier League matches, we use the Opta supercomputer to assess the likelihood of the teams near the bottom of the table being relegated.
28 February
Following Matchday 27, the Premier League relegation scrap has been reduced to just four teams, according to the Opta supercomputer.
In all 10,000 simulations from here, three of Wolves, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton are relegated in each of them.
Wolves are not dragged into it often, though. Their 1-0 win at Bournemouth on Saturday gave them a five-point cushion from the relegation zone and their chances of survival a real boost. They did lose 2-1 at home to Fulham on MD 27, but Vitor Pereira’s side are now only relegated in 5.8% of sims.
That is because none of the three sides in the relegation zone were able to put any points on the board either.
Southampton were easily dispatched 4-0 by Chelsea on Tuesday, meaning they stay on just nine points, and 13 from safety with just 11 games to play. Saints fans may have already resigned themselves to the drop, and the Opta supercomputer has as well, giving it a 100% chance of happening. That doesn’t mean it sees it as an absolute certainty, just that Ivan Juric’s men go down in all 10,000 of its latest simulations, so it would take a greater than 10,000 to 1 chance of them surviving.
There is some hope for Ipswich, who looked for a while like they could be the latest team to take points off Manchester United. Kieran McKenna’s side took a 1-0 lead at Old Trafford on Wednesday, and at half-time were level at 2-2 with an extra player following Patrick Dorgu’s red card. However, United ultimately won 3-2, leaving Ipswich with a 96.6% chance of relegation.
In the final game of the matchday, Leicester had a chance to give their hopes a boost and reel in Wolves, but were unable to do so as they lost 2-0 at West Ham, making it 11 defeats in their last 12 league games (W1). The Foxes have only scored four goals in those 12 games, and haven’t found the net in any of their last four outings. Ruud van Nistelrooy’s men now go down in 97.6% of sims.
17 February
There was little change in the relegation battle this weekend, with the bottom five heading into Matchday 25 producing just one point between them.
Ipswich Town battled impressively to a 1-1 draw at Aston Villa having been reduced to 10 men in the 40th minute after Axel Tuanzebe’s red card. It might have been even better for Kieran McKenna’s side given they took the lead just before the hour mark from a smart Liam Delap finish, but Ollie Watkins turned in the rebound from Marcus Rashford’s free-kick to deny them what would have been a huge three points.
The draw took Ipswich into 18th position, above Leicester City and now just two points adrift of safety, but they are still relegated in 89.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s latest round of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Leicester, who fought valiantly against Arsenal but ultimately collapsed and lost 2-0 thanks to two late goals from Mikel Merino, are deemed even more likely to go down, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 91.8% chance of relegation.
Basement boys Southampton remain almost without hope. After a 3-1 south-coast derby defeat at home to Bournemouth, the Opta supercomputer says they have a 99.96% chance of the drop. In other words, in the latest round of 10,000 season simulations, Saints only stayed up in four.
Although the three promoted clubs are big favourites for the drop, Wolves aren’t out of trouble yet. Their 2-1 defeat at Liverpool wasn’t a terrible result and they were arguably unfortunate not to nick an equaliser at the death, but in the end they went home empty-handed and their chances of relegation remain significant, at 17.5%.
Is there any chance of anyone else joining the relegation battle? The Opta supercomputer gives West Ham a 0.8% chance of going down, while both Manchester United and Everton are relegated in 12 out of 10,000 simulations, putting their slim chances of the drop at 0.12%. Crystal Palace (0.05%) and Tottenham (0.01%) are the only other teams with any chance of going down.
4 February
Was this the weekend the Premier League’s relegation battle officially became a four-horse race?
David Moyes’ appointment at Everton has proved a masterstroke, and the Scot has completely revitalised his former club. After putting four past Leicester, Everton have now won three successive Premier League games for only the second time since the start of 2024, previously doing so last April.
The Toffees have secured nine points (W3 D0 L1) from a possible 12 since Moyes took over, and that has basically taken them completely out of danger. They get relegated in fewer than 1% of the Opta supercomputer’s rest-of-season simulations.
Wolves also had a weekend to celebrate, securing a crucial 2-0 win over Aston Villa at Molineux. After a promising start under Vitor Pereira – where they collected seven points from his first three games – Wolves came into the weekend having suffered four straight defeats.
This victory not only snapped that losing streak but also lifted them out of the relegation zone. Their battle for survival is not over though, with the Opta supercomputer still giving them an 18.4% chance of going down.
Leicester and Ipswich both suffered damaging defeats at the hands of relegation rivals. The Foxes’ heavy defeat at Goodison Park increased their chances of going down to 88.9%, but Ipswich’s home defeat to Southampton would have been particularly galling, considering they blew a chance to take three points off the poorest side in the division. They now have a huge 91.7% of facing the drop.
Despite the fact that Southampton ended their 13-game winless streak in the Premier League, they remain almost certain to go down (99.9%). They do only have nine points, after all.
21 January
Only one of the first 31 seasons of Premier League football saw every team promoted from the second tier a season earlier end up being relegated back in their first campaign in the top flight. Back in 1997-98, Barnsley, Bolton Wanderers and Crystal Palace all fell back into the second division after only one season in the Premier League.
Last season, the 32nd Premier League campaign, saw it happen for just the second time, as Luton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley all fell back into the Championship one season after winning promotion to the top tier of English football. As things stand, it looks like occurring for a third time and in successive Premier League seasons for the first time ever.
The bottom three currently consists of Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town, with Wolverhampton Wanderers loitering above the drop zone on goal difference. Despite there being 16 matchdays remaining, the Opta supercomputer doesn’t see much of an outcome other than the bottom three falling through the trapdoor at the end of the season.
Southampton are on course to be the worst Premier League team of all time. With just six points from 22 matches, it’s the lowest at this stage of a single season behind Derby’s seven points from 22 games in 2007-08. Derby ended on 11 points, so Southampton still have to pick up five more in their remaining 16 games to even equal that.
Across top-flight history, Southampton’s points tally is the lowest after 22 games (based on three points for a win) since Sheffield United in 1975-76 (6 – W1 D3 L18), while only one team has ever won fewer after 22 games of a top-flight campaign in England – Bolton in 1902-03 (3 – W0 D3 L19).
This leaves Southampton 10 points from safety already, and the supercomputer sees them relegated 99.8% of the time across its current 10,000 simulations.
Leicester City aren’t far behind them in the supercomputer’s current relegation projections, with the Foxes falling into the Championship in 91.0% of the 10,000 simulations today.
After beating West Ham on 3 December to get the Ruud van Nistelrooy era off to a great start, they’ve lost seven consecutive league games for only the fourth time in their history after previously doing so in April 2001, September 1990 and January 1932.
That April 2001 run eventually stretched to eight defeats in a row, which is their club record. Their next league game comes away at Tottenham on Sunday, where they could equal that record, although Spurs are arguably one team that Leicester wouldn’t mind facing at the moment (more on them later).
Ipswich complete the trio of promoted sides in trouble, albeit only separated by Wolves in 17th on goal difference. That could have been different, had the Tractor Boys not capitulated in a 6-0 home loss to Man City on Sunday, which saw them suffer their heaviest home defeat since a 6-0 loss to Liverpool in the Premier League back in February 2002.
Kieran McKenna’s side are relegated in 71.3% of current Opta supercomputer simulations, with a daunting away trip to league leaders Liverpool up next. They have only won seven points from 12 home games this season, but their next match at Portman Road comes against Southampton on 1 February – an ideal chance to improve their chances of crawling out of the relegation zone.
Wolves lost 3-1 at Chelsea on Monday night, but it was a result that was hardly unexpected, even given the Blues’ recent poor form. That defeat has Wolves teetering above the relegation zone and four points behind Everton in 16th, giving some justification to their relegation chances being 30.8% today and the Toffees only 6.4%.
Everton’s excellent home win over Tottenham on Sunday takes them within four points of Spurs with a game in hand, albeit against rivals Liverpool. More importantly it stopped a run of six Premier League games without a win (D3 L3) and gave their new/old manager David Moyes a platform to build upon in upcoming weeks.
The supercomputer sees the relegation battle unlikely to involve any side outside the current bottom five teams, but if Tottenham and Manchester United keep up their terrible form, things could rapidly go downhill – especially if the bottom three start picking up points.
As things stand, Tottenham were relegated in just eight of the 10,000 simulations, while Manchester United’s “worst team ever” fall into the Championship in six of those simulations.
31 December
They had to wait a long time for it, but Ipswich Town finally earned their first home win of the 2024-25 campaign this week. It came in somewhat surprising circumstances, too, with the Tractor Boys winning 2-0 against Chelsea.
Those three points lifted Ipswich up into 18th place and just two points from safety. Everton in 16th do have a game in hand, though, and Kieran McKenna’s men are still in a precarious position. Their chances of relegation dropped thanks to their win against Chelsea, but they remain a heavy 71.5% shot to go down. The fact is 72 teams in Premier League history have had 15 points or fewer after 19 games. Fifty of them (69.4%) ended up being relegated. So, history is still against Ipswich.
Leicester City are now second-favourites for relegation (74.8%) for the first time since early October. Defeats to Liverpool and Man City mean it’s now four losses on the spin for Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side. It’s the club’s worst run in the competition since April 2023 (also four losses in a row).
Wolves continued their unbeaten start to life under Vítor Pereira. Boxing Day brought them a famous 2-0 home victory over Manchester United, before a late Jørgen Strand Larsen goal won them a point away at Tottenham. In fact, Pereira is just the fourth manager to go unbeaten in his first three top-flight league games in charge of Wolves (W2 D1) after Andy Beattie in 1964, Ronnie Allen in 1967 and Sammy Chung in 1977. They now have just a 40.3% of relegation.
Everton had strung together three resilient performances to pick up valuable draws against Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City, but their unbeaten run came to an end on Sunday at home to high-flying Nottingham Forest. The Toffees are outside the relegation zone and do have a game in hand, but they need to start converting draws into wins to make their current relegation percentage (11.5%) diminish further.
Southampton’s miserable first half of their campaign culminated with another defeat away to Crystal Palace. After taking the lead through Tyler Dibling, goals from Trevoh Chalobah and Eberechi Eze consigned Saints to their 15th loss of the season. They have just six points after 19 Premier League games this season (W1 D3 L15) – only Sunderland in 2005-06 (6) and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (5) have also ever had as few as six points at the half-way mark. At 99.4%, they are almost guaranteed to go down despite the recent appointment of Ivan Juric.
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