Dave Aranda is going to the 2026 season with the hottest seat in college football. And while Baylor is hoping for a turnaround this fall after a 5-7 season (3-6 BIG 12), the reality is, Dave Aranda needs a much-improved season to stay on the sidelines in Waco in 2027. So what exactly does that look like? Well, Dave Campbell’s Texas Football‘s Mike Craven joined Heartland College Sports’ Pete Mundo to share his thoughts.
Craven told Mundo, “I think it’s got to be eight or more [wins]. Can you bring him back at 7-5? Can you bring him back on 6-6? And it all depends on how it goes. If you lose [QB DJ] Lagway to a brutal injury, if you lose three games by a single point, there are always caveats there. But think of all the college football coaches who get to Year 8, they’re rarely hanging on. They’re typically future Hall of Famers, or guys who are going to get statues… McLane Stadium’s attendance is down. I think it’s got to be an exciting, fun, real contention-type season, if he’s going to be there in 2027.”
You can watch the entire interview with Craven here and subscribe on YouTube.
Dave Aranda’s Baylor Tenure
Aranda is 36-37 during his six years in Waco, with a 24-30 record in the Big 12 Conference. The 2021 season is when Baylor went 12-2 and won the Sugar Bowl, but the Bears have one season above the .500 mark since that season. In two of the last three season the Bears have finished 11th in the conference.
Clearly, Aranda needs a big turnaround in 2026, because if not, he won’t be in Waco beyond next season. This is his final chance to prove he’s the guy to get this program back on track.
Mundo’s Take
I admit I would not have kept Aranda around. Six seasons in, there was little evidence that this team was going to revert back to its 2021 form. In fact, that year looks more like a fluke than the norm. It’s too bad, but it’s reality.
However, Dave Aranda is well-liked and an honorable man and if anyone is worthy of giving this one, final chance, it’s him. Aranda would do himself a lot of good to win the opener vs. Auburn, but this team likely needs to go 3-2, at worst, before their bye week for Aranda to get a chance in the second half of the season. Baylor plays Auburn, Prairie View A&M, Louisiana Tech, Colorado and Arizona State to open the season.
My prediction is that Aranda and the Bears won’t get to a bowl game, and he will be let go midway through the season as Baylor tries to get on the front end of the coaching carousel for 2027.
