A smaller card for my College Football Projection Model last week and we came up on the wrong side of a winning week again. Alabama got to the window for us but Georgia State and the over in Wake Forest at Virginia didn’t.
The total bothers me as we again got significant closing line value. The game closed at 48.5 juiced towards the over and we came nowhere close to a cover. That’s just how it goes sometimes.
Last week’s record: 1-2, -1.20 unitsSeason record: 23-34-1, -14.60 units, -22.8% ROI
We are going to keep it rolling this week with four bets to start and maybe add a play later this week as I wait for a better number. As always shop around for the best price and good luck!
College football Week 12 best bets
Louisville -2.5 (-120) vs. Clemson
Worst price to bet: Louisville -2.5 (-120)
Your typical buy-low spot for the Cardinals this week and sell-high spot on Clemson. Yeah, the loss to Cal at home isn’t great, but this number is probably north of a field goal without last week’s results. Yes, those games do matter and my model factors them in, but I’m not buying into these teams being equal. The worry that I have for this matchup is that the Louisville offense has been poor this season — mostly struggling to find explosives (106th in the country) — and there is a lot of talent on the Clemson defense. But as much talent as Clemson has, the Louisville defense has been nails this year. If Jeff Brohm’s offense can find some explosives, the Cardinals should come out on top.
Minnesota at Oregon over 43.5 (-118)
Worst price to bet: Over 44 (-115)You’ll have to shop around for this price, but I think this is too low of a number for a game involving Oregon. Sure, the offense has cooled off a bit but they’ve put up quality performances against lower competition in the Big Ten this year. Last week’s game against Iowa was on the road and in the rain. I think we are adjusting too far. They’ve also had some injuries to skew some results. But the matchup that I like here is that Minnesota’s defense isn’t what we are used to seeing the past few years. The Golden Gophers are 91st in defensive success rate and 67th in EPA per play and they haven’t faced a juggernaut of offenses. They’ve given up 27, 42, and 41 to Cal, Ohio State and Iowa in their road games this year.
Texas at Georgia over 48.5 (-110)
Worst price to bet: Over 49 (-110)
Admittedly, I’m a little nervous backing this Texas offense in a big spot but the Longhorns have made some changes the past few weeks and I think the offense is better for it. First, Arch Manning is getting the ball out much quicker, which is allowing him to face less pressure. Manning has gotten the ball out in 2.58 seconds or less the past three game whereas the previous six he did that only once, against dreadful Sam Houston State. I’m not saying the Texas offense is back, but I believe it is much improved and are trending up as the season progresses. Factor in that the Georgia defense isn’t particularly great at getting off the field and I think you can see some points here.
TCU +4.5 (-110) at BYU
Worst price to bet: TCU +3.5 (-110)
My model hasn’t been particularly fond of BYU all year and quite frankly, they’re probably the most overrated team in the CFP rankings from a pure power rating standpoint. I think the best way to make my point is that I believe these two teams to be pretty equal, but I do give the slight edge to TCU as they come in at No. 31 and BYU is at No. 36. Maybe I’m too low on the Cougars, but they’re 3-0 in one-score games this year — one of those games against Colorado — compared to TCU’s 2-2. These teams are much closer than the ranking suggests and 4.5, despite home field advantage, is too many points for BYU to be laying against a quality opponent.
