After so many of the preseason Heisman Trophy favorites stumbled out of the gate this season, it feels like a wide open race to win the award. One big game has been enough to vault someone into the early mix.
This past week, it was Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza joining the list of contenders. The Indiana quarterback was nearly perfect against Illinois. Mendoza completed 21 of 23 passes for 267 yards and five touchdowns. The Hoosiers won 63-10 in a game that was a top-25 matchup in primetime, so plenty of eyeballs were on it (and probably turned it off before halftime).
Mendoza rocketed from +2500 to +900 in the odds to win the Heisman on BetMGM. Oklahoma’s John Mateer (+700) is the favorite again after dropping to second last week, but Mendoza is right there.
Mateer’s Sooners picked up a second quality win on Saturday, this time beating Auburn 24-17 in a game that was tight the whole way and included a late safety to provide a backdoor cover (or push depending on the number you got). Individually, Mateer was just fine. He accounted for two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing), but had a lost fumble and started 8-for-19 passing before finishing 24-for-36 for 271 yards.
It’s still too early to make much of season-long stats, but Mendoza hasn’t racked up big passing-yard numbers yet because in three of Indiana’s four games, the Hoosiers were up so big that he didn’t finish the game. In Indiana’s only competitive game so far, when the Hoosiers futzed around with Old Dominion in the season opener (a 27-14 win), Mendoza didn’t reach 200 yards passing. While he ranks outside the top 30 in the country in passing yards, Mendoza leads the country in passing touchdowns with 14.
The Hoosiers still have trips to Oregon and Penn State on the schedule, so he will have more chances against top opposition ahead.
Speaking of Oregon, Dante Moore is next in the odds, along with Miami’s Carson Beck, at +1200. Beck was the favorite a week ago.
In all, 14 players have odds of +2000 or shorter, implying each has at least a five percent chance of winning the Heisman. Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith (+1600) is the only non-quarterback of that group.
While you may not expect the Heisman race to have come into focus after just four weeks of games, all of last year’s finalists (Travis Hunter, Dillon Gabriel, Ashton Jeanty and Cam Ward) were in the top five spots in the odds by the end of September. That doesn’t always happen (Jayden Daniels was +3000 midway through 2023 and won), but there’s a good chance the Heisman winner, or at least most of the finalists, are among the 14 with +2000 or shorter odds.
The Week 5 slate offers plenty of big-stage games for players to make a name for themselves. The Heisman is a narrative award, and showing off in big games sways voters. This week features No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (which could get Garrett Nussmeier (+1500) back in the conversation), No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (where both Moore and Drew Allar (+3000) can make their first big statements) and No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (which is a potential showcase for Ty Simpson (+2000) and Gunner Stockton (+1400)).
(Photo of Fernando Mendoza: Rich Janzaruk / Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
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