Missouri football vs Alabama scouting report, score prediction

They don’t often come as big as this one.

No. 14-ranked Missouri football will host No. 8 Alabama on Saturday for the first matchup between two teams ranked among the top 15 in the AP poll in Columbia since 1979. The game is scheduled to kick off at 11 a.m. and will air on ABC.

Mizzou (5-0, 1-0 SEC) has opened the season with five straight wins for just the third time since it joined the SEC in 2012. The Tigers have Power-conference wins over Kansas and South Carolina to date.

Alabama (4-1, 2-0) has rebounded from a season-opening loss at Florida State with a strong run of four straight wins, including conference victories at Georgia and at home over Vanderbilt. The Crimson Tide, coached by Kalen DeBoer, are in the middle of a run of facing four straight currently ranked teams.

Here is everything you need to know about Alabama before this upcoming Saturday’s game, including the Tide’s strengths, weaknesses, and a score prediction:

Alabama and QB Ty Simpson have course-corrected since dismal Week 1

If you watched Alabama get bullied by Florida State in Week 1 and then tuned out, you have not seen the Crimson Tide team that is visiting Columbia. This is a good Alabama team.

‘Bama has been extremely efficient, and that begins with first-year starting quarterback Ty Simpson.

Simpson, since Week 2, has been PFF’s highest-graded passer among all starting quarterbacks in the country. He has done that by throwing for 306 yards per outing with 11 total touchdowns and one interception over four games. When his passes are adjusted for scenarios beyond his control, such as dropped balls, he has a completion rate of 80.7%.

He’s getting help up front. More than one-third of all the pressures he has faced this season came in the FSU game alone.

Mizzou has to find ways to effectively pressure Simpson without overcommitting — a task that’s much easier said than done.

The quarterback has been highly efficient since his sluggish start and poses a serious threat to the Tigers on Saturday.

Where can Missouri football exploit Alabama’s defense?

We can already hear the “no, duh” coming through the screen.

But the answer is Ahmad Hardy and the Tigers’ run game.

The Crimson Tide have two of the better safeties in the nation in Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb. We’d be highly surprised to see a defensive coordinator like Alabama’s Kane Wommack overcommit on heavy boxes to keep the Tigers’ run game quiet. That means consistently finding success through the air against Alabama will be difficult.

So, getting Mizzou into second- and third-and-manageable has to fall on Hardy and Jamal Roberts. That also doesn’t seem like an impossible outcome.

Alabama has the 12th-ranked rushing defense in the league by allowing 155.4 yards per game. Hardy leads the nation in rushing with 730 yards, and Roberts is still among the SEC’s top-10 rushers with 350 yards. That’s a one-two punch that will keep Mizzou competitive more often than not.

Now, can Missouri keep its production rolling? This is far and away the biggest test yet for Hardy. Without another stunning performance from the hard-to-tackle tailback, there aren’t many clear paths to victory for Mizzou.

“I mean, honestly, we’ll find out this week,” Drinkwitz said. “He’s done it his whole career, but the challenges continue to grow this week. He’s really good at keeping his lower body churning. He doesn’t have a very big strike zone. But we’ll find out this week.”

What should worry Mizzou fans?

Missouri could absolutely get burned by Alabama’s quality at wide receiver if the Tigers haven’t fixed their “greedy eyes” problem in the secondary.

Ryan Williams is one of the better wideouts in the country. Germie Bernard is as reliable an option and target for Simpson as they come. If Mizzou gets too focused on defending the underneath routes that Bernard runs, Williams could find himself in one-on-one matchups deep downfield. That is a doomsday scenario.

The Tigers have to be disciplined in the secondary. It has never been more crucial for MU defensive coordinator Corey Batoon’s unit to have a thorough understanding of its assignments.

The pass-rush has done its job in Columbia so far. Now it’s time for the secondary to meet the mark, or it could be a long day.

“We’ve given up a lot of explosive passes in some of our zone (coverage) stuff, so trying to make improvements to our zone distribution,” Drinkwitz said. “And then we’ve had really too many penalties in the back end, too, so, trying to get better at not utilizing our hands in inappropriate ways.”

Score prediction: Alabama 34, Missouri 28

Can Missouri beat Alabama? Absolutely.

If Hardy keeps his recent run of production rolling against elite opposition and the Tigers don’t shoot themselves in the foot in the secondary, there’s a chance the Tigers are 6-0 heading to Auburn.

Will that happen? Well, the opponent has a tremendous amount of quality and an equal say in the outcome.

Alabama’s recent run of performances indicates it should be discussed as one of the nation’s elite teams and a national title contender.

Feet to the fire, we’re guessing that shows up on Saturday, but there’s little doubt in our mind that it’s going to be competitive all the way to the final drive.

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