The Baylor Bears avoided a second straight 0-2 start with a comeback win over SMU last week, giving head coach Dave Aranda and his squad some much-needed momentum heading into a Week 3 matchup with Samford on Saturday, Sept. 13. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have stumbled out of the gate with losses to West Georgia and The Citadel.
Saturday’s matchup will kick off at 12 p.m. ET in Waco with the Bears coming into the game as 47.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 58.5 total points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Two Key Players to Watch
Sawyer Robertson (QB, Baylor)
Coming into the season, Sawyer Robertson carried high expectations as the leader of a Baylor program that has won just one bowl game since 2019. Last week, he delivered in a big way, throwing for 440 yards and four touchdowns to spark a double-overtime comeback. Despite his aggressive downfield approach, Robertson has been efficient, completing 62.2% of his passes without an interception. Facing a vulnerable Samford defense, he has a strong chance to put up another standout performance.
Jaden Gibson (WR, Samford)
Despite Samford’s struggles, wide receiver Jaden Gibson has been a steady playmaker for the Bulldogs. He hauled in 10 catches for 91 yards last week, building on a six-catch outing in Week 1. Against a Baylor secondary that has shown struggles, Gibson will need to create explosive plays if Samford hopes to keep the game competitive. With the Bulldogs leaning heavily on the pass game, attempting 56 throws last week, expect Gibson to be targeted early and often.
Two Key Storylines
Baylor’s Secondary Still a Question Mark
The Bears gave up a pair of 75-yard touchdowns to SMU, but thanks to Baylor’s offense matching score for score, BU managed to come out victorious despite the struggles in the secondary. This week’s matchup with Samford should give Baylor’s defensive backs a chance to regroup, though they’ll be tested by a Bulldogs offense that attempted 56 passes last week. If the Bears can limit explosive plays and tighten coverage, this game could serve as a confidence-builder before Big 12 play.
Samford Needs To Limit Turnovers
Samford committed five turnovers against The Citadel, including three interceptions. If Baylor is gifted extra possessions on Saturday, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. Protecting the football will be the Bulldogs’ top priority, especially against a Baylor defense looking to build confidence. With Robertson and the Bears’ offense finding their rhythm, Samford can’t afford to give them short fields or momentum-changing takeaways.
Prediction: Baylor 56, Samford 7
If things go as expected, Baylor’s backups should see plenty of action before the Bears dive into Big 12 play next week. Robertson will look to continue his hot start, while running back Bryson Washington is coming off an impressive performance with 115 yards and two touchdowns. Baylor should be able to control the game on the ground behind its offensive line while mixing in explosive plays through the air. If the Bears establish tempo early and avoid costly mistakes, this matchup should stay firmly in their control from start to finish.
