We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament bracket thousands of times to find each team’s probability of advancing in March Madness on the women’s side. Here’s what we learned.
This is the golden era of women’s college basketball, and the recent NCAA tournaments have been historic.
We saw the dominance of South Carolina, the moxie of Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, and the greatness of Caitlin Clark. Clark, Reese and Cardoso are in the WNBA now, but that does not mean that this year’s March Madness bracket will be any less thrilling.
JuJu Watkins is back with a No. 1 seed in her second year with USC. Paige Bueckers looks to win a title in her final season, this time with star freshman Sarah Strong alongside. UCLA, which made the Sweet 16 last year and won the Big Ten tournament this year, seeks its first NCAA title.
Yes, these women are back, and this basketball tournament should be as good as we have seen.
We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It is a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions a team is above or below average. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100). If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.
More From Opta Analyst
In addition, TRACR will power our new Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket that you can sign up for to compete! You get points based on the inverse of the likelihood that a team has to advance to each round.
As an example, TRACR gives Baylor an 80% chance of beating Grand Canyon in the first round. If you pick Grand Canyon and the Antelopes pull an upset, you get 80 points. LSU has an 18% chance of reaching the Final Four – if you pick Kim Mulkey’s squad to win its region and it does, you would get 82 points for that Elite Eight game alone!
Spokane 1: Probability of Making the Final Four
UCLA (34.2%)
LSU (18.3%)
Ole Miss (11.6%)
Baylor (10.4%)
Michigan State (9.6%)
NC State (5.4%)
Georgia Tech (2.2%)
Richmond (1.1%)
Harvard (0.9%)
George Mason (0.8%)
Grand Canyon (0.2%)
Ball State (0.1%)
San Diego State (<0.1%)
Vermont (<0.1%)
UC San Diego (<0.1%)
Southern (<0.1%)
South Carolina or the Field?
In the last two NCAA tournaments, Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks entered as the No. 1 overall seed with an undefeated record. If you were asked to take South Carolina or anyone else to win it all in those tournaments, TRACR would have said take the Gamecocks.
Two years ago, they lost to Clark and Iowa in the Final Four. Last year, they got revenge against the Hawkeyes and finished undefeated.
This season, TRACR still gives South Carolina the highest probability of winning it all and indicates the Gamecocks should have been the No. 1 overall seed on Sunday night instead of UCLA.
However, TRACR gives the Gamecocks a 25.3% chance to win it all. While they might have the highest chances of winning it, taking someone else to win it would be a more likely option.
Birmingham 2: Probability of Making the Final Four
South Carolina (55.4%)
West Virginia (11.1%)
Duke (10.7%)
Alabama (7.1%)
Vanderbilt (6.7%)
North Carolina (2.8%)
Maryland (2.6%)
Utah (1.8%)
Indiana (0.8%)
Oregon (0.5%)
Washington (0.3%)
Columbia (0.2%)
Green Bay (<0.1%)
Norfolk State (<0.1%)
Oregon State (<0.1%)
Lehigh (<0.1%)
Tennessee Tech (<0.1%)
But this leads to another question: Who should you pick instead? While the No. 1 seeds are strong this year, the team with the second-highest chance to win it all is 2 -seed UConn.
The Huskies did not make it to the top spot despite being No. 1 in the NET and annihilating Big East play, going 18-0 in the conference regular season and winning three conference tournament games by at least 20. Their losses to Notre Dame, USC and Tennessee earlier this season were enough to drop them to two.
USC, however, should be quite worried about a potential rematch with UConn. The Trojans beat the Huskies 72-70 in Hartford on Dec. 21. They shot the lights out from 3 (9 of 16) and held UConn to 6-of-23 (.261) shooting from beyond the arc. Since that game, UConn has gone 21-1, outscoring opponents by an average of 31.0 points. That includes a 29-point road win over… South Carolina.
This could be a team that gives coach Geno Auriemma his 12th national title.
Spokane 4: Probability of Making the Final Four
UConn (39.6%)
USC (28.9%)
Oklahoma (10.8%)
Kansas State (7.2%)
Kentucky (5.8%)
Iowa (3.1%)
Oklahoma State (1.7%)
Mississippi State (1.1%)
California (1.0%)
Murray State (0.3%)
South Dakota State (0.2%)
FGCU (0.2%)
Liberty (0.1%)
Fairfield (<0.1%)
Arkansas State (<0.1%)
UNC Greensboro (<0.1%)
Don’t Go Crazy With Early Upsets
The chaos that stems in the men’s NCAA Tournament does not transfer over to the women’s tournament. In fact, last season there was only ONE upset in the entire first round, when 11-seeded Middle Tennessee edged 6-seed Louisville. Even all the 8 seeds beat the 9 seeds. Having only one upset last year was a rarity, but it illustrated the general lack of upsets on the women’s side.
All this chalk is because of two main reasons. First, the first- and second-round games are played on the home courts for the top four seeds. This is a major advantage for the top teams and helps shake off some of the nerves in March.
Second, the gap in talent between the top teams in the tournament and the bottom is much more significant in the women’s game than in men’s basketball. Historically, the higher seed has a .821 winning percentage against the lower seed in the Round of 64. The men’s side, by comparison, has a .739 winning percentage against the lower seed in the Round of 64.
Now, I am not saying to just pick chalk for the women’s tournament. That is not fun, but also the probability that all 1-8 seeds win in the first round of this tournament is 0.0002%, per TRACR.
Pick some upsets, just not that many.
But If You Did…
If I were to pick a first-round upset, what would it be?
Here are a few that I might suggest:
11 Murray State over 6 Iowa: The team that has lost in the last two championship games losing in the first round? All things considered, the Hawkeyes had an impressive season after losing the game’s greatest player. Bringing in transfer Lucy Olsen from Villanova has helped gain back some of that scoring, and they have key wins over Iowa State, USC and Michigan State. This has more to do with Murray State’s dynamic offense.
Fitting to their name, the Racers average 87.8 points, most in Division I. They are led by fifth-year senior Katelyn Young, who became the 14th player in D-I history to score at least 3,000 points. She scored 30 and 34 points in the semifinals and finals of the Missouri Valley tournament. If the Hawkeyes cannot stop her, this could be an upset.
Murray State has a 28.9% chance to reach the next round, per TRACR.
10 South Dakota State over 7 Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State is 7-3 against the NCAA Tournament field this season, but it may struggle against standout Brooklyn Meyer and the Jackrabbits. South Dakota State has won 19 in a row and has key wins over Creighton and Oregon. If it can still rebound past 6-foot-6 center Tenin Magassa, then it can pull off the upset.
TRACR gives the Jackrabbits a 39.7% shot at upsetting Oklahoma State.
13 Montana State over 4 Ohio State: Montana State needed a last-second buzzer to win the Big Sky, but do not let that bring doubt to a possible upset over Ohio State. The Bobcats have won 23 of their last 24 games and have held opponents to just 55.5 points per game. Ohio State began the season 17-0 but has stumbled a bit lately, going 5-5 over its last 10.
TRACR gives Montana State a 22.2% chance at winning.
11 Iowa State over 11 Princeton and 6 Michigan: Notice the trend of Big Ten teams? I am not a hater (I’ve been watching this league for 20 years), but I just think the conference has some tough draws.
This Iowa State team has been all over the place this season but might be the most dangerous double-digit seed. You may remember the Cyclones in last year’s tournament after Audi Crooks had 40 points in the first round against Maryland, they nearly upset Stanford.
That same team is back, and not many can guard Crooks. Princeton and Michigan have smaller lineups and will likely need to double her. If the rest of the team can score, like how Emily Ryan scored 36 against Stanford, this team could be one to watch out for.
Iowa State has a 66.7% chance of beating Princeton and a 25.7% chance to beat Michigan after that.
Birmingham 3: Probability of Making the Final Four
Texas (34.3%)
Notre Dame (27.8%)
TCU (13.6%)
Tennessee (11.8%)
Ohio State (5.3%)
Michigan (4.1%)
Nebraska (1.0%)
Illinois (0.6%)
Creighton (0.5%)
Iowa State/Princeton (0.5%)
Louisville (0.3%)
South Florida (0.1%)
Montana (0.1%)
Stephen F. Austin (0.1%)
FDU (<0.1%)
High Point/William & Mary (<0.1%)
14 FGCU over 3 Oklahoma: If you want a monster upset in the first round, this could be it. Oklahoma had won nine in a row before losing to South Carolina in the SEC tournament and Raegan Beers has fit in perfectly after transferring from Oregon State. This, however, is a rematch from last year’s NCAA Tournament, when the Sooners narrowly beat FGCU 73-70. They had to crawl back to win after the Eagles dominated the first quarter 25-15.
The Eagles are looking for revenge. Their top four scorers are all seniors, they shoot the ball well and they haven’t lost since Dec. 16, winning 23 in a row. They will try to get out to an early lead again – FGCU outscores opponents by 12.4 points in the first half, sixth-best in Division I.
The five teams ahead? UConn (18.5), USC (13.2), Notre Dame (13.1), South Carolina (12.7) and Texas (12.5). The Eagles are in good company.
FGCU has a 19.3% chance at being the first 14 seed in women’s history to win an NCAA Tournament game.
Check out our predictions page for live probabilities throughout the NCAA Tournament.
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