2025 NFL draft: Shemar Stewart and production vs. potential

Some of the most confounding, career-challenging decisions in the NFL draft come when the eye test crashes head-on into the numbers. When a player looks NFL-ready in the way he moves, but there aren’t enough impact plays on the stat sheet to match the off-the-charts measurables.

“I think you value upside because you want growth, but we don’t have a farm system,” Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said. “You don’t have the luxury of redshirting them in the National Football League.”

Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart, the No. 25 prospect on ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board, is part of a deep group of edge rushers in this 2025 draft class, a position at the epicenter of the “potential vs. production” debate.

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He’s also the highest-rated player in this year’s balancing act of marrying future NFL potential with on-field production. And his evaluation might be defined by the number “4.5” — as in, 4.5 total college sacks and exactly 1.5 in each of his three seasons.

“Sometimes the stats don’t tell the whole story,” Stewart said at the combine. “It’s all about the film. And when you look at the film, you can really see what’s going on for the most part.”

Stewart, along with Mykel Williams (Georgia) and Landon Jackson (Arkansas), are this draft’s prime examples of what has become a yearly conundrum for NFL scouts and front office executives. We talked to people around the league about how decision-makers wrestle with big-time upside vs. a lack of production in Round 1 and why the traits are sometimes too good to pass up — even if it means betting their own futures on that potential.

THE 21-YEAR-OLD STEWART is a just-how-you-draw-it-up prospect. He measured 6-foot-5 and weighed 267 pounds at the combine. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.59 seconds, better than three running backs, five wide receivers and all 14 tight ends in attendance who ran. He also had a 40-inch vertical jump (tied for fourth highest among all players at the combine) and a broad jump of 10-foot-11 (tied for seventh among all players).

“[That type of performance] will always get your attention,” a scout for an AFC team said. “There are not many people on the planet who can do that.”

It raises the question of how a player so big, strong, quick and fast had only 4.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss over 37 college games. To put that into perspective, Penn State’s Abdul Carter — who many in the league believe is the best player available in this class — had 12 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss in 16 games last season. But Stewart has tantalizing analytical metrics that rope scouts right back in. Despite his meager production, his average time to first pressure last season was 2.43 seconds, the best mark in the FBS (Carter clocked in at 2.46 seconds).

“As a coach, if you think you’re worth a s— at all, you’re going to watch a guy with all the traits and say, ‘I can get [the sacks] out of him, I can get him to play,'” a longtime former NFL defensive line coach said. “Those are the pound-the-table guys. You don’t want plateau players, guys who are as good as they’re going to be. You want potential.”

Stewart said he has been asked by coaches, scouts and personnel executives about his statistical profile. He pointed to the Aggies’ depth and opposing quarterbacks getting a rid of the ball quickly to avoid pressure from the Texas A&M front. The Aggies’ defense was 22nd in the FBS in pressure rate (40.3%) despite one of the lowest blitz rates (19.3%, which ranked 115th).

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“I wasn’t a sack-chasing warrior,” Stewart said. “I just wanted to become the best player for my team. And sometimes the stats don’t show that. Sometimes, I have to play dead to rights, and sometimes I just couldn’t finish or just couldn’t get there in time.”

Stewart isn’t alone in fielding these questions. Georgia’s Williams, who is ranked No. 22 overall by Kiper, had 14 sacks in three seasons for the Bulldogs, including only five in 2024. Williams told teams in recent weeks he was “less than 60%” at times last season because of an ankle injury he suffered in Week 1.

Arkansas’ Jackson also fits the bill. He had 16 sacks in three seasons, but the 6-foot-6, 264-pounder was so dominant in combine workouts that multiple scouts on different teams said they needed to rewatch his game tape. They noted that Jackson was an earnest edge setter in run defense, but they didn’t see the explosiveness he showed in Indianapolis in the pass rush.

Williams said at the combine that some compared him to another Georgia edge rusher who was a statistical curiosity — Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick of the 2022 draft. Walker was one of the draft’s most prominent potential-vs.-production debates of the past decade.

“Travon was special because of how big he was and how fast he could move,” Williams said. “He’s very versatile, like myself. So that’s where I think the comparisons come from, but that’s what made him special. What he could do with his size.”

WALKER DIDN’T CHECK all the boxes as the 2022 draft approached. He had 9.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss combined in three college seasons. But the 6-foot-5, 272-pound edge rusher was intriguing because of the rare, jaw-dropping moments he produced, even if they didn’t always result in a tackle or sack.

Leading up to that draft, scouts repeatedly cited Walker’s rundown of Alabama wide receiver Agiye Hall 24 yards downfield in the 2021 season’s national championship game as an example of his unique skill set. He then turned in a combine day for the ages. Walker ran the 40-yard dash in 4.51 seconds, the best mark for all defensive linemen and second best among edge rushers. His vertical leap of 35½ inches was better than all but two defensive linemen.

“I liked him,” an AFC scout said. “But you find yourself answering for, ‘How’d he only have one sack as a [sophomore]? How can a guy that talented have [seven] sacks in his last two years?'”

Coaches, scouts and general managers insist sacks aren’t the end-all-be-all when searching for pass rushers. But players whose talents are clear without the easy-to-digest results vex even the best talent evaluators.

“In a meeting you’re always going to say, ‘Let’s look beyond these numbers and get more data,’ or ‘Let’s dive into this more, look at the scheme, how he was coached, what he was asked to do, the makeup, all of it,'” said an NFC general manager. “The guys with both traits and numbers, those are the easy calls. … A player with all the traits and no touchdowns, interceptions or sacks or whatever, those are tough ‘Whys?'”

Walker ended up being the No. 1 pick, with the Jaguars choosing him over Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, who was regarded as the safer selection due to his 14 sacks in 2021. Hutchinson was selected No. 2 overall by the Lions. The early results skewed to Hutchinson. Walker moved from defensive line to outside linebacker as a rookie, finishing with only 3.5 sacks over 788 snaps. Meanwhile, Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks and finished second in the Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. But Walker rewarded Jacksonville’s patience with 10 sacks in 2023 and 10.5 last season.

“It’s always, when you’re on the clock, a choice about if, and when, you take traits and what you think the player has inside to be what you think he should be,” the NFC general manager said.

SOMETIMES IT DOESN’T work. For every Walker and Odafe Oweh — a 2021 first-round draft pick who had zero sacks in his final college season but had 10 for the Ravens in 2024 — there’s a Vernon Gholston, whose elite traits didn’t translate after being drafted by the Jets with the sixth pick in 2008.

But elite pass rushers are among the quickest to adapt to the NFL, which is why some evaluators lean in a little more on potential.

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“You just think, a tweak here with his hands, fix his stance, add some strength, they’ll adapt fast,” the former defensive line coach said. “You want those guys that get to the quarterback. … If they’ve got the traits, you can take a chance. You’ll get it right more than some other positions.”

Stewart hopes evaluators look at the whole picture and see all he believes he brought to the Aggies’ defense — and would bring to his new NFL home.

“[Box score] production is a little overrated,” he said.