Max Holloway remains favored to beat Conor McGregor in Saturday’s UFC 329 main event, but the price has moved significantly toward McGregor during fight week. Holloway opened around -400 roughly a month before the July 11 bout in Las Vegas and was listed at -225 by July 8, while McGregor shortened to +170.
The change does not make McGregor the favorite. It does show that money and various Cowboyspin odds have cut Holloway’s projected edge nearly in half as the former two-division UFC champion prepares for his first fight since 2021. The welterweight rematch headlines UFC 329 at T-Mobile Arena.
Fight Weeks Odds UFC 329: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
At the opening number of -400, Holloway carried an implied probability of 80. The move to -225 reduced that implied figure to about 70 percent. McGregor’s shift from a much longer opening underdog position to +170 gives him an implied probability of roughly 30 percent.
The July market still had Holloway at -225 and McGregor at +185, so the late movement was primarily toward McGregor. His price became less profitable for bettors backing the upset, while Holloway’s number became more attractive for people who believe activity, output and cardio will decide the rematch.
The total was set at 2.5 rounds, with the under priced at -125 and the over at -105 as of fight week. The market also heavily leaned toward a finish: “No” on the fight going the distance stood at -500, compared with +305 for “Yes.”
The betting case for an early McGregor result at UFC 329 centers on the first round. He owns a four-inch reach edge despite being listed three inches shorter, and the early stages give him the best chance to land clean before Holloway’s pace takes hold given the power ‘The Notorious’ carries.
For a winner pick, Holloway remains the side based on the available fight-week numbers, activity and projected cardio edge. For method, the market expects the fight to end before the final horn, with Holloway by later TKO fitting the prevailing read if Ireland‘s McGregor cannot create a decisive moment in the opening rounds.
