Is the ACC in for a comeback season? And 5 other college basketball thoughts

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips probably hasn’t slept great this week, given his league’s uncertain College Football Playoff future.

Good thing it’s basketball season.

1. The ACC-SEC Challenge, and a changing narrative

The difference a year makes.

Last season’s ACC-SEC Challenge was less a competition than a beatdown — and in many ways, it charted both conferences’ paths for the rest of the college hoops calendar. The SEC went 14-2 against the ACC a year ago — with 10 of those wins by double digits, and five by 20-plus points — in a week that established it as the standard in the sport. It was a huge data point for the league as it got a record 14 teams in the NCAA Tournament. The ACC, on the other hand, wound up with its fewest tournament teams (four) since 1999.

And while the SEC won again this season, winning six of seven Wednesday games to take the series 9-7, the ACC’s broader performance validated offseason optimism that it is finally moving in the right direction.

Among the highlights: No. 4 Duke outlasting No. 15 Florida; No. 16 North Carolina beating No. 18 Kentucky at Rupp Arena for the first time since 2007; Syracuse defeating No. 13 Tennessee for its first top-15 win since February 2024; and Virginia crushing Texas in Austin. The SEC still got its licks in — Oklahoma thumping Wake Forest; No. 25 Arkansas dealing No. 6 Louisville its first loss this season; and No. 20 Auburn handling NC State — but at least the ACC isn’t leaving this week in shambles, like it did a year ago. The conference has five teams in the top 25 on the analytics site KenPom; just as many as the Big 12 and one more than the Big Ten. Last year, it ended the season with only two in the top 25.

The ACC also had eight teams in the top 50 of the NCAA’s NET rankings entering Wednesday’s games. And while the SEC still had nine (and the Big Ten and Big 12 respectively had nine and 10), the ACC can reasonably hope to get five, six, maybe even seven teams into the NCAA Tournament. On the flip side, the SEC could still get double-digit teams into the Big Dance, but it looks like it lacks the elite teams it had a year ago. Four of the top six teams last season, according to KenPom, came from the SEC; this year, it has eight of the top 25, but the top-ranked team is Vanderbilt at No. 7.

2. Duke doesn’t have a No. 2, but it has a big 3

Much has been made during Duke’s 9-0 start about the Blue Devils’ roster construction — specifically, about who the team’s second-best player is behind all-world freshman Cameron Boozer, who leads the Blue Devils in points (23.6), rebounds (9.3), assists (3.7) and steals (1.7) per game.

After Duke’s season-opening win over Texas, it seemed like sophomore Isaiah Evans — who scored 23 points and made four 3-pointers — would be that guy. Evans has been fine since then, averaging 11.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, but his 3-point percentage has slumped to just 29.6 since.

Against Kansas, sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II stepped up. Ngongba backed up that effort against Florida, too, dropping 11 points, five rebounds, five assists and five blocks.

In doing so, he became only the fifth high-major player in the modern era (dating back to 1985) to post 10-5-5-5 in a win over a ranked opponent, joining the likes of former Michigan bigs Danny Wolf and Franz Wagner and former Georgetown forward Otto Porter Jr.

So maybe Duke doesn’t have a singular second-best player, a la Kon Knueppel last season.

Maybe it has a big three instead, and a fearsome one at that.

In Duke’s four wins over high-major foes, the Boozer-Evans-Ngongba trio has averaged 50.8 points, 17.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 3.5 blocks and 2.0 steals per game. Moreover, outside of Caleb Foster’s 15-point outburst against Arkansas, they are the only Blue Devils to reach double figures against a high-major foe.

Ngongba, especially, is increasingly intriguing. The 6-foot-11, 250-pounder has post moves aplenty, but what’s really unlocking Duke’s offense is his passing. Per CBB Analytics, Ngongba is one of just seven high-major players 6-foot-11 or taller averaging at least 2.5 assists per game. These are not the sorts of reads, or passes, you expect players his size to make:

It’s not just from the high post. Ngongba’s also starting to become more of a playmaker on the move:

Duke still needs more production from Foster, Nik Khamenia and Dame Sarr to reach its season-long goals, but it’s clear which three Blue Devils are pacing the way.

3. One month in, the way-too-early top 4 teams

There are still 12 undefeated high-major teams a month into the season, but four have emerged as the prohibitive favorites midway through nonconference play. Rank ‘em however you like, but all four should lead any list of national title contenders:

For fans of UConn, Houston, Iowa State or Gonzaga, please don’t consider this a slight. Any of those five could cut down the nets in Indianapolis come April. But a month in, the aforementioned four have been just a cut above.

4. A much-awaited debut raised UConn’s ceiling this week

Despite Kansas’ home-court advantage and stout defense, UConn accomplished something this week that even its 2024 national title team didn’t: winning at Allen Fieldhouse.

The difference for the Huskies? Freshman Braylon Mullins, playing only his second game after missing much of the preseason with an ankle injury. Mullins scored 17 points — including two game-sealing free throws with 9.2 seconds left — off the bench, adding his name to the impressive list of freshmen so far this season.

Per Stathead, he’s only the 14th player in the last decade to score 15-plus points off the bench in a road win over a ranked team, joining the likes of Auburn guard Tahaad Pettiford last season, former Kentucky star and top-three pick Reed Sheppard, and Villanova’s 2018 Final Four Most Outstanding Player, Donte DiVincenzo.

Mullins was a five-star, top-25 recruit and sharpshooter coming out of high school, so seeing him punish Kansas from deep wasn’t out of nowhere. But his ability to hang tough during the game-deciding sequence — making two clutch free throws and getting the defensive rebound beforehand that sent him to the charity stripe — bodes extremely well for UConn. Kansas coach Bill Self specifically tried to target Mullins on KU’s final offensive possession, and while Mullins got saved by Eric Reibe’s rim protection, he never quit on the play and put himself in position to grab the pivotal rebound:

We still haven’t seen full-strength UConn — leading scorer and rebounder Tarris Reed missed the Kansas game with his own lingering ankle injury — but in some ways, that has enabled Dan Hurley to expedite the learning curve of his younger pieces, namely Reibe and Mullins. If UConn had managed to hang on against Arizona a few weeks ago at home, in a game where neither Reed nor Mullins played, we might be talking about the Huskies the same way we are Arizona, Duke, Purdue and Michigan.

Maybe we should be anyway.

5. North Carolina’s blessing in disguise

Senior UNC guard Seth Trimble remains out with a broken forearm — one of the wilder injuries you’ll hear about in college hoops this season, by the way, as a machine reportedly fell on Trimble inside the Tar Heels’ weight room. Naturally, that has forced Hubert Davis to alter his perimeter rotation. Junior wing Luka Bogavac has started the last six games in Trimble’s place, while sophomore wing Jonathan Powell has also gotten more burn.

Frankly, UNC has no one-for-one replacement for Trimble. He’s the team’s best point-of-attack defender, best perimeter athlete and a 14.5-points-per-game scorer who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. The Tar Heels are a better team with him than without, as was evident against Michigan State, which bullied North Carolina in its only loss.

The silver lining, though? Bogavac and Powell have gotten more run than they would’ve with a healthy Trimble, which will only pay future dividends.

And this week, against Kentucky, Davis may have stumbled upon another silver lining: freshman guard Derek Dixon.

Entering Tuesday, Dixon — a 6-foot-5, top-50 freshman — hadn’t played more than 18 minutes in a game, and not more than eight against either of UNC’s high-major foes. But with Bogavac in foul trouble, and North Carolina’s offense out of whack early, Davis turned to Dixon … who pump-faked from 3, then drove to draw a foul on his very first possession of the game.

UNC scored on its first four possessions with Dixon in the game, fueled by 4 points and an assist from the freshman alone. Davis ultimately leaned on Dixon for much more — including over the final five minutes, in which Kentucky led by 4. But with Dixon organizing UNC’s offense, and duking it out with Kentucky guard Denzel Aberdeen on the defensive end, the Tar Heels pulled to within 1 with a minute left. Davis called timeout, but after UNC’s designed play fell apart, Dixon wound up taking (and making) the biggest shot of the game.

Kentucky scored on its subsequent possession to tie things back up, setting up a potential game-winning possession for UNC with 30 seconds left. This time, Davis specifically drew something up for — you guessed it — Dixon:

Dixon only finished with 9 points, three rebounds and two assists, but his fingerprints were all over UNC’s comeback, especially with Kentucky tilting its defense to stop star freshman forward Caleb Wilson. Dixon earned more playing time moving forward, even once Trimble returns, and given his true point guard nature, he’s a seamless fit alongside any of Trimble, Evans or Bogavac.

If Dixon solves UNC’s inconsistency at point guard — and frees up its other perimeter players to do what they do best — then we’ll look back on this week as a turning point for the Tar Heels.

6. A loaded weekend ahead

And, sure, some more game picks, which surely won’t age poorly.

No. 11 Gonzaga (7-1) vs. No. 18 Kentucky (5-3) in Nashville (Friday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Can the Cats avoid a five-alarm fire in Nashville? At this point, it seems unlikely — especially against a Zags team that has had a week and a half off since being embarrassed by Michigan in the Players Era championship. The pick: Gonzaga

No. 4 Duke (9-0) at No. 7 Michigan State (8-0) (Saturday, noon ET, Fox): Duke’s three ranked wins have been on neutral courts (Kansas, Arkansas) or at home (Florida), but playing at the Breslin Center is a different story. Under Izzo, MSU is 116-16 at home in December. MSU hasn’t allowed a single high-major player to score 20 yet this season … but here’s betting Boozer changes that and carries Duke. The pick: Duke

No. 10 Iowa State (8-0) at No. 1 Purdue (8-0) (Saturday, noon ET, CBS): Kudos to Iowa State associate director of communications Ryan Workman for this awesome note: Saturday’s game versus Purdue will be the Cyclones’ 16th top-10 matchup in program history — nine of which have come since T.J. Otzelberger took over in 2022. That’s a testament to Otzelberger, who has quickly made ISU one of the most consistent programs in America. That said, even if Tamin Lipsey plays, I’m not picking against Purdue at Mackey. On a neutral court, it’d be closer to a coin toss. The pick: Purdue.

No. 14 Illinois (6-2) vs. No. 13 Tennessee (7-2) in Nashville (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN): Both teams are coming off losses: Illinois to UConn, Tennessee to Syracuse. Tennessee was impressive in beating Houston in Las Vegas, but the Vols have underwhelmed offensively in consecutive losses to Kansas and SU. I’ll ride with the “Balkan Five,” especially since Illini Brad Underwood has had a week to continue integrating the now-healthy Tomislav Ivisic. The pick: Illinois

No. 6 Louisville (7-1) vs. No. 22 Indiana (7-1) in Indianapolis (Sunday, 2:15 p.m. ET, CBS): After both teams lost road games Wednesday, this matchup lost a little shine, but Indiana has still been one of the surprises of the season so far. Can the Hoosiers, playing close to home, pick up their first top-50 win? Or will Pat Kelsey’s Cards rebound from a lackluster defensive showing against Arkansas? I lean the latter, especially since UL is one of “my teams” this season. The pick: Louisville