Many mocks are predicting Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning will go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Not all league executives, however, are buying the hype after a so-so first season as a full-time starter in 2025.
To show his skeptics he’s worthy of the top selection, the QB must better one glaring weakness in his game: accuracy.
Why Arch Manning’s accuracy has room for improvement
Manning (6-foot-4, 219 pounds) has completed 311-of-499 passes (62.3 percent) in three seasons at Texas. That’s not terrible, but NFL teams want that number to be much higher if they’re considering using a No. 1 pick on a QB.
Take a look at the collegiate completion percentages of the past three QBs taken No. 1 overall on the chart below. All completed more than 65 percent of their passes at the FBS level.
QB
Completion percentage
Las Vegas Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza (2026)
691-of-1,008 attempts (68.6 percent)
Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward (2025)
948-of-1,436 attempts (66 percent)
Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (2024)
735-of-1,099 attempts (66.9 percent)
“You can’t be at 60 percent if you’re gonna be the No. 1 pick,” ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. said on “The First Draft” podcast Tuesday (h/t On3’s Steve Samra). “You’ve got to be up around 70 percent.”
Now, Manning’s pass-catchers contributed to some of his problems in 2025. Pro Football Focus credited Texas with 22 drops last season. James Foster, a former draft analyst for The 33rd Team, posted a montage of them on X on April 29.
