We’re diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputer’s favorites are in our NCAA men’s basketball conference tournament predictions.
Upsets. Buzzer-beaters. Improbable runs. Epic performances.
March Madness begins with conference tournament play that will go a long way toward determining seeds and who will get into 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Cinderellas will sneak in, bubbles will burst, and the cream will rise to the top.
Leagues like the SEC and ACC will have teams doing all they can to boost their resumes for Selection Sunday. Others will need to win their tournament in order to be one of 68. And sure, there are some teams that are locks to make the Big Dance but looking to improve their seeding.
We’ve simulated each conference tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It is a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 that averages 70 possessions per game is projected to outscore an average team by .29 points per possession (20 divided by 70) in a game. If the game had 100 possessions, then that 20-some TRACR team would outscore the average team by about 29 points.
We’re going to dive through each conference, starting with the first league tourneys to get underway this week, and see who our model’s favorites are. The teams within each conference are ranked by the highest probability of winning the league tournament, with that probability in parentheses.
Note: Conference tournament odds for each team are their projected odds entering the conference tournament. Some conferences are still finishing their regular season. These projections will continually update after the end of each conference’s regular season.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb (36.8%)
North Alabama (30.8%)
FGCU (12.4%)
Eastern Kentucky (7.3%)
Queens (6.2%)
Jacksonville (3.6%)
Austin Peay (2.9%)
Central Arkansas (0.3%)
Queens is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament as it recently transitioned from Division II to Division I. If the Royals do win the ASUN Tournament, then the automatic bid will instead go to the regular season champion. However, Lipscomb and North Alabama were co-champions, thus whoever advances farther in the tournament will get the bid. If they are eliminated in the same round, Lipscomb will receive the bid as the No. 1 seed.
Our model gives the top two seeds a combined 67.5% chance of winning the tournament. Lipscomb has been to the NCAA Tournament just once, while North Alabama is looking for its first appearance. These two project to be a 13 or 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they win.
Horizon League
Milwaukee (23.9%)
Robert Morris (22.6%)
Cleveland State (13.7%)
Youngstown State (12.7%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (9.6%)
Oakland (6.9%)
Northern Kentucky (5.7%)
Wright State (4.0%)
IU Indianapolis (0.6%)
Green Bay (0.5%)
Detroit (0.2%)
Robert Morris won the regular season title after winning its last seven games. The Colonials also beat Milwaukee both times this season, but TRACR still slightly favors the Panthers after they won five of their last six games.
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Patriot League
Bucknell (38.1%)
American (17.9%)
Navy (11.4%)
Colgate (11.2%)
Lafayette (5.6%)
Boston University (5.2%)
Lehigh (3.7%)
Loyola (MD) (3.1%)
Army (2.6%)
Holy Cross (1.4%)
Bucknell has won six in a row and nine of its last 10, clinching a share of the regular season title with American after the team started the season 4-10. Quite the turnaround for John Griffin in just his second year with the Bison. The model sees Bucknell as a clear favorite following the team’s recent hot streak.
Sun Belt
Arkansas State (41.2%)
James Madison (20.0%)
Troy (16.7%)
South Alabama (11.7%)
App State (5.0%)
Marshall (2.5%)
Texas State (1.4%)
Georgia State (1.1%)
Louisiana (0.3%)
Georgia Southern (0.1%)
Old Dominion (0.1%)
Southern Miss (<0.1%)
Coastal Carolina (<0.1%)
ULM (<0.1%)
Four teams clinched a share of the Sun Belt regular season title – Arkansas State, South Alabama, Troy and James Madison. TRACR gives a significant edge to the Red Wolves, who beat No. 16 Memphis on the road in December. The Sun Belt champion will likely earn a 13 or 14 seed from the committee.
Big South
High Point (41.2%)
Winthrop (19.5%)
Radford (13.0%)
UNC Asheville (7.5%)
Longwood (7.3%)
Presbyterian (7.1%)
Charleston Southern (3.1%)
Gardner-Webb (1.3%)
USC Upstate (0.4%)
It was a great basketball season at High Point, as the men’s and women’s teams both won regular season conference titles. The Panthers have won 11 games in a row, including the last four by at least 20 points. It would be High Point’s first NCAA Tournament appearance – they are projected to be a 13 seed.
Northeast
Central Connecticut State (49.1%)
LIU (24.9%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (9.4%)
Saint Francis (6.0%)
Stonehill (4.5%)
Wagner (3.1%)
Le Moyne (2.4%)
Chicago State (0.9%)
Mercyhurst is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament and the NEC Tournament due to its recent transition into Division I.
Central Connecticut State has not lost since Jan. 12, while LIU won its last six games to finish with an above .500 record in regular season play. Winner of this conference tournament will likely be a 15 or 16 seed.
Ohio Valley
Southeast Missouri State (36.7%)
SIU Edwardsville (28.7%)
Tennessee State (13.2%)
Little Rock (13.0%)
Tennessee Tech (2.9%)
UT Martin (2.0%)
Lindenwood (1.8%)
Morehead State (1.8%)
Southern Indiana is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament since it recently transitioned into Division I. After finishing with a 5-15 record in conference play, the team will join Eastern Illinois and Western Illinois as the three teams that did not qualify for the Ohio Valley Tournament.
Southeast Missouri State bounced back from a 9-22 record in 2023-24 to earn its first 20-win season since 1999-00, the first time the school made the NCAA Tournament. If the Redhawks earn the conference’s bid, they will likely be a 16 seed.
Summit League
South Dakota State (23.1%)
St. Thomas (MN) (21.6%)
North Dakota State (20.5%)
Omaha (18.2%)
South Dakota (7.8%)
Denver (2.8%)
North Dakota (2.6%)
Kansas City (2.6%)
Oral Roberts (1.0%)
Despite finishing with a 12-4 record in conference play, St. Thomas is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to the team’s recent transition from Division III. If the Tommies do win the Summit League tournament, the automatic bid would go to the highest-seeded eligible team, Omaha.
While South Dakota State has the highest likelihood of winning the conference tournament, per TRACR, top-seeded Omaha could still head to the dance with a strong showing from St. Thomas. Or, the Mavericks could make it simple and win the tournament themselves.
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